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Zander98al
Guest
I wouldnt give the stp parameters a whole lot of focus. Ive been told EHI is better too look at. Although the High STP really laminates the conditions sunday as a good chunk of north MS is "off the charts".
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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather tornadoes
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Zander98al
Guest
Whatll be more crazy is whem 3km nam and HRRR get into range. i think itll be a eye opener not in a good wat
Snowflowxxl
Member
The NAM has the warm sector getting plenty north
BHS1975
Member
Yeah CAD will be nonexistent.
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Snowflowxxl
Member
RIPE
Snowflowxxl
Member
GFS also has the warm sector well north
Big pause, been noticing with soundings now that theres wayyy more EML advection, this may help or hurt, may keep supercells isolated, or may just keep a line of convection wth barely anything out ahead
RollTide18
Member
Yeah that's how it goes EMLs. I've been saved by them before and saw nothing but a few showers and some thunder but at the same time when a cap breaks, sh*t gets real in a hurry.
Avalanche
Member
Curious on everyone's thoughts here on this. Some mets have said the majority of severe storms will be relegated to the Ohio/TN valley and west of the Apps. JB said it would extend eastward into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. How do you see it playing out?
Kind of a double-edged sword there.
A better EML would lend itself to better instability, which would aid in the intensity of the storms that do develop.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Seeing prob's like these 4 days out is bad. I know y'all were clowing me yesterday with the apocalyptic comments, but I wasn't kidding.
Dawgdaze22
Member
Not fully understanding this map, can you explain it to me like I’m 9?
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Snowflowxxl
Member
It’s a probabilities map of seeing a significant tornado. There is already a 90% probability bubble in MS. The map is blurry or you could see the percentages.
I think you almost have to have an EML here to get really any shot of discrete convection. Not only to keep junk convection/showers down, but really need to improve low level lapse rates with this much shear.
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Euro is still slowing down and is still building heights out ahead of the SW !
Tbh SBcape is looking like less of a issue now, even up into NC/SC 
ICON continues to trend less severe and even less rainy for most. Not a model of choice tho but others were discussing it when it was extreme.
Cbmatt2408
Member
Sounding from the LaGrange, GA area on the Monday 06z. Found us a PDS Sounding. I get the feeling these are all over the SE.
Soundings in NC/SC, the most cape the euro run has had up in NC/SC, you gotta give euro some credit it’s held with this for days, classic HSLC soundings 
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Brick Tamland
Guest
This is starting to look very scary. I only hope the severe threat decreases here as we get closer to Monday since we have a few more days. But I recall the April 16, 2011 outbreak was forecasted a few days out, too.