• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

North ga upstate sc North Carolina there will be a wedge in place. The idea is warmer air takes over and the severe weather threat will really be from 12am and after


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Areas just to my north, along the MS/LA parallel, have a 4 out of 5 severe weather risk. It wouldn't surprise me if some of the local NWS offices issued tornado and severe weather watches later tomorrow.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
What’s this mean?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

That looks to me like individual supercells ahead of the main line may be limited. Which would be good news but the main line itself would still likely be tornatic do to incredible wind energy


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Parker said:
I’m sure ARCC or someone else on here could give a better description than myself, but I believe it would limit the tornado threat if that sounding is correct, but I may be wrong.
Click to expand...
You know it could be weather models not handling the environment well. I clearly remember some future forecast radar on april 27th 2011 showing a big blob of rain going over the state but we all know that didn't happen. I may be wrong but im just putting my two cents in on this.
 
Parker said:
I’m sure ARCC or someone else on here could give a better description than myself, but I believe it would limit the tornado threat if that sounding is correct, but I may be wrong.
Click to expand...

Looks like the first wave of convection on the NAM is probably junk. Strong cap still in place.
 
Yeah that first wave is definitely junk and elevated, tops aren’t impressive on them, cap is present, second area of storms is the real deal with a QLCS 81FA9ED9-FF95-40C3-80ED-5642F14852E6.pngDFFCBFB2-FD94-4AEF-94D6-95E90C14181A.png26360D6B-A060-401C-9A13-53942525946F.png
 
It weird tho, bc that first area of “junk” isn’t that elevated, those storms could easily becomed surface based if they wanted to, maybe there very low topped so UH isn’t appearing impressive with them as say a storm that’s 30-40kft high ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It weird tho, bc that first area of “junk” isn’t that elevated, those storms could easily becomed surface based if they wanted to, maybe there very low topped so UH isn’t appearing impressive with them as say a storm that’s 30-40kft high ?
Click to expand...

It's probably mostly below the cap partly being sheared apart.
 
Arcc said:
The second wave has a excellent shot at being linear. Linear forcing will be increasing quickly as the upper level winds begin to parallel the front.
Click to expand...

Linear is worse than QLCS?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Arcc said:
It's probably mostly below the cap partly being sheared apart.
Click to expand...

With that initial area of crap, sfc convergence isn’t even impressive, it’s lackluster, so where is that crapvection coming from ? Significant Height falls/forcing is back to the west, also it’s capped, so why is this junk developing ? Maybe some low level convergence (850mb) instead of Surface convergence ? Is this why maybe the convection could be elevated? Idk it’s probably the NAM being the NAM
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
With that initial area of crap, sfc convergence isn’t even impressive, it’s lackluster, so where is that crapvection coming from ? Significant Height falls/forcing is back to the west, also it’s capped, so why is this junk developing ? Maybe some low level convergence (850mb) instead of Surface convergence ? Is this why maybe the convection could be elevated? Idk it’s probably the NAM being the NAM
Click to expand...

Gotta wait for the CAMs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
With that initial area of crap, sfc convergence isn’t even impressive, it’s lackluster, so where is that crapvection coming from ? Significant Height falls/forcing is back to the west, also it’s capped, so why is this junk developing ? Maybe some low level convergence (850mb) instead of Surface convergence ? Is this why maybe the convection could be elevated? Idk it’s probably the NAM being the NAM
Click to expand...

The NAM does like being the NAM.
 
Mmmm, there’s literally a firehose of very high precipitable water (over 2 inches which is quite high for this time of the year) with nice 850mb moisture transport where that crap is, coincidence? 36498805-7AD5-4984-9431-15B4B7C9EA14.pngFF511959-6BF9-421B-BC32-91C3223B11B0.pngEE953211-586C-4289-B781-9B83E18B760D.png
 
So, as for as, the NAM soundings go... should we discount them? They seem to be the most extreme. This sounding is basically for Charlotte:
 

Attachments

  • nam_2020041012_069_34.8--80.59.png
    nam_2020041012_069_34.8--80.59.png
    236.1 KB · Views: 45
ryan1234 said:
So, as for as, the NAM soundings go... should we discount them? They seem to be the most extreme. This sounding is basically for Charlotte:
Click to expand...

It handles cape better than globals since it’s a meso model, if it still holds with cape by tomorrow like that it’s quite possible that soundings could pan out similar, it’s actually been increasing cape these past runs
 
How's the Euro looking?
 
Looks like Texas is gonna get some action tomorrow.

cbfe6add8af83b082c15093855b58eba.jpg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It handles cape better than globals since it’s a meso model, if it still holds with cape by tomorrow like that it’s quite possible that soundings could pan out similar, it’s actually been increasing cape these past runs
Click to expand...

Thank you, I noticed the increase in CAPE as well. I tell ya, for the most part, I do love tracking severe weather. But this setup is legit and honestly, quite scary looking.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top