-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
-
- Tags
- severe weather tornadoes
Jessy89
Member
Usually. But some of the local inhouse modeling suggests that we could indeed see wind gusts over 60, even without the storms.
Trody17
Member
It looks nasty coming though middle Tennessee
Z
Zander98al
Guest
What the heck is the BAMS model? 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fixed
Lostnthaweather85
Member
BMX going with a 5 out of 5 for their confidence level for tornadic thunderstorms Sunday. Very rare!
NAM is STILL trending towards more last minute stream separation and building heights ahead of the system 
Thank you mods for changing the title because Easter for most of us will be safe from any severe wx unless you are west west
Stop posting dumb things on purpose, please.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Easter will be safe for most of us ? Im pretty sure GA and AL are under the gun on Easter. That's a good chunk of this board.
BufordWX
Member
Z
Zander98al
Guest
I dont like spann saying that ??. Lets hope a lot of this fizzles out
Cadi40
Member
So would you say chances for an outbreak especially in the Carolinas are going up as of now?
It's about the same as it was yesterday and this morning. If this system manages to slow down, then we are in trouble. Also, we need to watch where that warm front ends up on Sunday. If we don't stay wedged in for as long as some modeling depicts, that will increase the tornado threat even more.
Slowing down 
Too much separation and SE ridge flex will equal warmer air aloft.
Jessy89
Member
I could be wrong but the threat in the Carolinas isn’t till after 12am Sunday night Monday morning. The tornado threat appears fairly high. Stp levels appear to be between 1-2. If modeling is correct
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah, that's not what you want to see. It's going to be a long couple of days for many of us on this board. Lots of sleepless nights incoming for us.
All I gotta say is wow
Soundings near CLT, even in the morning, there’s over 100 jkgs of low level instability (3CAPE), which would allow low level mesocyclones to punch down, these soundings are scary
Soundings near CLT, even in the morning, there’s over 100 jkgs of low level instability (3CAPE), which would allow low level mesocyclones to punch down, these soundings are scary
mbway091
Member
This run of the NAM looks pretty damn bad for SC and southeast NC.
Cadi40
Member
What’s the likeliness of a PDS watch being issued?
Z
Zander98al
Guest
100%
Egads! That is downright scary. I have a feeling that the I-77 corridor is going to the hotspot for tornadoes (some possibly strong) A lot of the guidance seems to be pointing in that direction.
Yeah, it shows a solid amount of theta E air advected with the LLvL jet, and a solid plume of cape over us from the LLvL jet, over 1500jkg of SBcape with over 100jkgs of 3CAPE is overkill
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Oof.
Yup! Back during the Feb outbreak, that was a low cape/high shear environment. And we managed to get an EF2 from that setup. This setup is far more dangerous, so you can imagine why people are concerned. The only difference is timing, but that also seems to be working against our favor, at this point.
Cadi40
Member
If the NAM Tornado parameters verify the 77 corridor is in trouble.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
This looks eerily similar to the radar from a certain outbreak in 2011
NoSnowJoe
Member
Kirk Mellish is raising the alarm in his new blog
www.wsbradio.com
Textbook severe weather case Easter Sunday
It may not rain constantly Easter Sunday but rain is likely, heavy at times. This looks like a poss
BHS1975
Member
NAM looks about 3 hrs slower.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
are you seeing similar for WS/GSO? TIA
Shaggy
Member
That's key for the piedmont and coastal plains in NC. We push this back to noon or later and things can get ugly.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Please watch you guys, really need the support.
Comment&Share
Last edited:
NoSnowATL
Member
Kirk Mellish is raising the alarm in his new blog
Textbook severe weather case Easter Sunday
It may not rain constantly Easter Sunday but rain is likely, heavy at times. This looks like a poss
The good thing is that the Atlanta metro area looks less bad then west and south of ATL.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Nws bham discussion afternoon update