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Deleted member 527
Guest
Ouch. Being in TN not liking the trend.
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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather tornadoes
Dewpoint Dan
Member
The immediate metro maybe. But from Newnan to Carrollton it could get ugly
NoSnowATL
Member
Yea that’s why I said better then west and south of the metro. That Newman to Carrollton line always get in the action . My guess one of the 2 mention get under a tornado warning.
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What model is this ?!? Holy ----
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Zander98al
Guest
Man that's worst case scenario?
Trody17
Member
Not to sure. But I can said don’t look good at all.
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Dewpoint Dan
Member
A part of me is skeptical because lets face it, how many storms live up to their "historic" hype. But then i remember April 2011 lived up to its hype. Im not comparing this to that one, just saying i guess anything is possible.
BufordWX
Member
I find that hard to believe especially since it looks like it is showing some supercell like storms with the wave moving through in the morning.
In NC/SC/GA also been noticing high Dcape values ahead of the QLCS 900-1200, could add on to the damaging wind threat
Likely showing elevated supercells in the morning
Maybe less cape but strong wind fields still
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Zander98al
Guest
Unless somehow they manage to become surface based. Was reading a meteorologists post that its unlikely but is a possiblity. Storm systems like to have a suprise or two. Itd be a big suprise if a supercell gets rooted along the northward moving warm front
Been noticing this being thrown around, and now I remember why, smoke was possibly the reason why that high risk busted last year in OK, but in 2011 this was shown to have made the outbreak worse, hmm ?
Keldeo
Member
The only thing that throws me off is why does the Model want to develop Super Cells in Western/Central Arkansas?
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Zander98al
Guest
Shoot i remeber seeing that too. What a coincidence.
Events like this one are very interesting to see unfold, high boom or bust potential.
If it does bust, it will most likely be on the tornado threat. I think the wind threat will remain.
Jrips2710
Member
Good thread for Alabama folks
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Arguably the scariest NWP model run I've ever seen around here for severe. Nocturnal tornado events are also very deadly, not liking this one bit.
Keldeo
Member
Twitter thread on the 3km NAM
Snowflowxxl
Member
The WRF's get into range tonight. We should start to be able to get a good grasp of this thing starting with the 0z models. As Arcc said high boom or bust potential.
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Zander98al
Guest
Good thread.i think people across the southeast shouldnt exactly follow the timing given out. I would say to start watching the weather as the warm front moves north because even a small error could produce a strong tornado and if anyones caught off guard by it, it wouldn't be good. Not liking the idea of there being some suprises?
Mason Dixon
Member
Lets hope Cameron Nixon is on to something with the rain cooled inflow
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here in north Georgia what is the chances we get upgraded from enhanced to moderate and the moderate risk for Alabama and points west go to a high risk. Thanks
Jessy89
Member
I expect some adjustments to the threat area tomorrow. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the enhanced shift East into the Carolinas. And moderate probably shift a little East as well. Just a opinion of course
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I have no doubt a high risk will be issued tonight for the MS Valley. I think the mod risk will extend to GA and parts of the Carolina's. We still need more data though. A lot can and will change. It's a very fluid situation.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I really think there are too many categories. Too confusing. Should just be slight, moderate, high risk.
Yeah, the "enhanced" risk category confuses a lot of people, IMO.
Thought this was interesting.
I enjoy reading Tim Colemans posts. I have read them all the way back to his days on the ABC 33/40 weather blog. He is typically pretty spot on in his analysis. I am getting the feeling that this will indeed be an event that has a high bust potential for sure. Will be interesting to watch it all unfold.
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bingcrosbyb
Member
With a high risk on the table, below are the last high risk days affecting the state of Alabama in the past 30 years (from AL.com)
* April 28, 2014
* April 27, 2011
* April 24, 2010
* April 10, 2009
* March 1, 2007
* April 7, 2006
* Nov. 10, 2002
* Oct. 13, 2001
* May 5, 1999
* April 16, 1998
* April 8, 1998
* May 2, 1997
* Nov. 27, 1994
* March 27, 1994
* Nov. 15, 1989
* April 28, 2014
* April 27, 2011
* April 24, 2010
* April 10, 2009
* March 1, 2007
* April 7, 2006
* Nov. 10, 2002
* Oct. 13, 2001
* May 5, 1999
* April 16, 1998
* April 8, 1998
* May 2, 1997
* Nov. 27, 1994
* March 27, 1994
* Nov. 15, 1989
Dewpoint Dan
Member
The only date that really stands out to me is October 13, 2001. Strange to have a high risk that time of year.
pcbjr
Member
NWS JAX getting in on it, and normally they are more conservative ...
Dawgdaze22
Member
Still looking as scary as it was earlier this afternoon?
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Keldeo
Member
Another thread
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Zander98al
Guest
I bet everybody's itching to see some of CAM's tonight. If they're still favorable i wouldn't be surprised for a high risk area in the next update.