These soundings are scary, it’s as simple as that, Normally the NAM May over do it but even taking some things off these soundings, there still scary
Soundings from MS/AL
soundings from NC/SC
Soundings from MS/AL
soundings from NC/SC
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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather tornadoes
GSP 
I believe severe Appalachian winds (55 to 85) will quickly erode any CAD and actually help tug the severe wx northward into parts of TN/NC/KY/VA.
WPC also putting out a moderate risk for excessive rainfall over parts of north Alabama, north Georgia, Tennessee, and into the Appalachians for Sunday.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
From nws of bhan
RAH finally makes a fleeting mention of strong to possibly severe storms around sunrise on Monday. Biggest threat appears to be up to an inch of rain in the east, with as much as 2 inches toward the Triad. Look out!!!!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If you see even a coarse resolution global model consistently producing a classic loaded gun sounding like this, you're usually screwed.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Wow huge day 3 Moderate. Don’t see those very often at all. This is going to be an event people talking about for a long time...
Parker
Member
Wow. I can’t remember seeing a moderate risk like that 48+ hours in a long long time.
Shaggy
Member
Seems they are locked into early morning as the timing and killing the severe threat with just scattered chances.
So, apparently Morehead, Wilmington, and GSP forecast areas all have elevated severe chances. But it appears there's some mysterious broad sink zone setting up over the Raleigh area, giving us partly cloudy skies with a few spring showers possible.
Tarheelwx
Member
Classic RAH. Been that way for 50 years. (But has mostly served them well.)
TW
TW
FFC is taking it serious now and has added Severe into the forecast. Here is a snippet from the AFD:
To say we`ve been in and continue to be in an active pattern the
back half of this week would be an understatement. Yet with all
Mother Nature has thrown at our area this week, she saves the
worst of it until the start of the long term.
To say we`ve been in and continue to be in an active pattern the
back half of this week would be an understatement. Yet with all
Mother Nature has thrown at our area this week, she saves the
worst of it until the start of the long term.
I just saw that they tweeted about it a short time ago and actually mentioned severe as a hazard.
RAH.. don't know anything about that office, but maybe they're more concerned about getting it right than getting it first. Nothing is lost by not sounding the alarm super early. This is still about 4 days away. No need to say "we called it first." More than ample time to inform the public.
WXinCanton
Member
Yeah, I read the AFD this morning. They are taking it seriously.
Shaggy
Member
Mhx isnt too impressed. Slow this down 6 to 8 hours and it's a different story though.
However, the best WAA does not get going until Sunday night into
Monday morning, when the gradient tightens locally and a notably
strong 40-50 kt LLJ moves over the area, bringing very strong low
level theta-e advection. Despite the unfavorable diurnal timing,
instability will quickly climb to 1000-1500+ J/kg, and showers with
some embedded thunderstorms are likely during Monday morning. Strong
gradient winds are expected along the coast, with gusty/damaging
winds in the strongest storms possible across the entire area as
ample low level shear could allow for convection to become
organized. Some variability regarding timing remains between long
range guidance members, and the severe threat will be further
refined in subsequent forecasts. Heavy rainfall is also possible at
times, though individual storms should be progressive enough to
preclude a widespread flash flooding threat.
In a way, being in quarantine may be a blessing in disguise. A lot of people spend time at churches and family/friend's houses to celebrate the holiday. At least people will be at home and ready to take action when $h!* hits the fan.
Negative. This is not an Easter storm for most on this board.
Snowflowxxl
Member