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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

This is not great if we get closer to the event and still get STP readings like this on the short term models. It would be a long night/early morning in Georgia heading into parts of the Carolinas as well...

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Dawgdaze22 said:
What does the STP normally have to be to indicate a good chance of tornadoes? I guess I’m asking how far above average are those values?


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It just lets you know the environment is ripe for Tornadoes. Those values are pretty rare in GA, esp since it will be in the night.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
What does the STP normally have to be to indicate a good chance of tornadoes? I guess I’m asking how far above average are those values?


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Values higher than one (1) tend to be more supportive. Across NGA at 06z-09z on Monday you see values from 3 to 9. This doesn't mean a tornado is 3 to 9 times more likely, but it does mean if super cell storm initiation does occur, the combination of buoyancy and wind shear would support larger tornadoes.
 
farleydawg792 said:
Values higher than one (1) tend to be more supportive. Across NGA at 06z-09z on Monday you see values from 3 to 9. This doesn't mean a tornado is 3 to 9 times more likely, but it does mean if super cell storm initiation does occur, the combination of buoyancy and wind shear would support larger tornadoes.
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Cool thanks for the explanation!


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