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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

North ga upstate sc North Carolina there will be a wedge in place. The idea is warmer air takes over and the severe weather threat will really be from 12am and after


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Areas just to my north, along the MS/LA parallel, have a 4 out of 5 severe weather risk. It wouldn't surprise me if some of the local NWS offices issued tornado and severe weather watches later tomorrow.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
What’s this mean?


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That looks to me like individual supercells ahead of the main line may be limited. Which would be good news but the main line itself would still likely be tornatic do to incredible wind energy


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Parker said:
I’m sure ARCC or someone else on here could give a better description than myself, but I believe it would limit the tornado threat if that sounding is correct, but I may be wrong.
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You know it could be weather models not handling the environment well. I clearly remember some future forecast radar on april 27th 2011 showing a big blob of rain going over the state but we all know that didn't happen. I may be wrong but im just putting my two cents in on this.
 
Parker said:
I’m sure ARCC or someone else on here could give a better description than myself, but I believe it would limit the tornado threat if that sounding is correct, but I may be wrong.
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Looks like the first wave of convection on the NAM is probably junk. Strong cap still in place.
 
Yeah that first wave is definitely junk and elevated, tops aren’t impressive on them, cap is present, second area of storms is the real deal with a QLCS 81FA9ED9-FF95-40C3-80ED-5642F14852E6.pngDFFCBFB2-FD94-4AEF-94D6-95E90C14181A.png26360D6B-A060-401C-9A13-53942525946F.png
 
It weird tho, bc that first area of “junk” isn’t that elevated, those storms could easily becomed surface based if they wanted to, maybe there very low topped so UH isn’t appearing impressive with them as say a storm that’s 30-40kft high ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It weird tho, bc that first area of “junk” isn’t that elevated, those storms could easily becomed surface based if they wanted to, maybe there very low topped so UH isn’t appearing impressive with them as say a storm that’s 30-40kft high ?
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It's probably mostly below the cap partly being sheared apart.
 
Arcc said:
The second wave has a excellent shot at being linear. Linear forcing will be increasing quickly as the upper level winds begin to parallel the front.
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Linear is worse than QLCS?


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