I figured that. But if I were them I would of at least made some customizations for this specific event.
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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather tornadoes
I figured that. But if I were them I would of at least made some customizations for this specific event.
Up here in the Piedmont of NC, hail has been a increasing threat due to insane amounts of 0-6km bulk shear, 1250-2000jkg of SBcape, strongest updrafts could certainly have some large hail, even in HSLC setups and puny cape soundings in the past in the SE as we’ve seen before the supercells that get going in that environment seem to get large hail
Cadi40
Member
I'm starting to get worried in Charlotte, I've lived here since 2013 and as far as I know this is one of the more dire situations I've experienced since living here.
Downeastnc
Member
Prof Fujita himself surveyed it, rated it 200 mph, the worst was in parts of Ayden and then over in Eastern Pines were well built homes were slabbed and the road surface was removed....
Prof Fukita's sketch with damage ratings of the storm in our area...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here. We. Go.
Nooo? We are talking about tornadoes and someone asked if NC has ever seen an EF5. Nothing wrong with relaying information that's related to this discussion.
Shaggy
Member
Mhx city now sounding some alarm bells but not all in yet.
Low level theta-e values will surge on the back of the LLJ,
building as much as 1500-2000 J/kg of instability by Monday
afternoon. Though some timing differences remain, most likely
scenario is now that a linear convective element will quickly
cross the area late morning into the afternoon. A significantly
severe weather event is possible if this convection progresses
slowly enough to allow significant instability to build ahead
of it. The very strong shear focused in the lowest 1 km
indicates that there will be damaging wind threat and possibly a
few tornadoes with well organized convective elements. Hail is
also possible, but deep vertical convection could be difficult
to achieve in such a shear environment, with low-topped
supercells more likely
Low level theta-e values will surge on the back of the LLJ,
building as much as 1500-2000 J/kg of instability by Monday
afternoon. Though some timing differences remain, most likely
scenario is now that a linear convective element will quickly
cross the area late morning into the afternoon. A significantly
severe weather event is possible if this convection progresses
slowly enough to allow significant instability to build ahead
of it. The very strong shear focused in the lowest 1 km
indicates that there will be damaging wind threat and possibly a
few tornadoes with well organized convective elements. Hail is
also possible, but deep vertical convection could be difficult
to achieve in such a shear environment, with low-topped
supercells more likely
Shaggy
Member
That tornado was the defining moment for me and downeast that got us hooked on weather. We were less than 2 miles or so from the track and had large debris in our neighborhood......like chunks of garage doors.
The fact is theres a real chance that some kid sadly experiences the same thing over the southeast over the next few days.
Downeastnc
Member
Classic presentation.....gonna see a lot of this the next few days.....
WXinCanton
Member
Please don't criticize the forum with your 7th post. If there's a problem, PM a mod or admin. The post is on topic and just fine. At the very least, it's not even close to worthy of an open chastisement.
Jrips2710
Member
Definitely looks intense. Probably going to be a broken line of supercells. Crazy how much this slowed down over the past few days. Barely getting into GA at 4AM
Looks can be deceiving.
gawxnative
Member
Also notice... Same forecaster....Hmmmm
That’s a nasty lookin QLCS, and lots of low level instability , and to go along with that, low Level LRs are around 6.5km ?
,
,
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Jrips2710
Member
Peachtree City disco hot off the press
A significant weather outbreak is expected later in the day and through Monday morning, with discrete supercellular storms
anticipated during the afternoon and evening, followed by a QLCS mode during the overnight hours ahead of the cold front extending southward from the deepening low, which is expected to enter northwest Georgia after midnight and exit the area to the
southeast by mid-morning on Monday. All rounds of thunderstorms are capable of producing severe weather. As moisture and
instability continue to increase over the region, continued strong southerly Gulf flow ahead of the approaching low will contribute to dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and precipitable water values ranging from 1.5 to 1.75 inches across the forecast area. This
will allow for destabilization across the area. Instability values will be fairly moderate, generally between 800-1200 J/kg.
However, with strengthening mid and upper level dynamics, wind profiles indicate a strongly sheared environment, including both
speed and directional shear, with 0-1 km shear values of 45-55 kts and effective deep layer bulk shear values of 75-85 kts. 0-1 km
helicity values are also anticipated to be between 450-600 m2/s2 during the evening and overnight hours. As a combination of these factors, there remains an Enhanced Risk for severe weather across
the north and central Georgia. Any severe thunderstorms that occur will be capable of producing tornadoes and strong, damaging wind gusts. With the potential for long-lived discrete cells, the threat certainly exists for particularly strong, long-track
tornadoes to impact the forecast area. A secondary threat associated with severe thunderstorms will be large hail, mainly
favored over western Georgia. However, with only moderate instability, the hail threat is not as pronounced as the threat for tornadoes and damaging winds.
A significant weather outbreak is expected later in the day and through Monday morning, with discrete supercellular storms
anticipated during the afternoon and evening, followed by a QLCS mode during the overnight hours ahead of the cold front extending southward from the deepening low, which is expected to enter northwest Georgia after midnight and exit the area to the
southeast by mid-morning on Monday. All rounds of thunderstorms are capable of producing severe weather. As moisture and
instability continue to increase over the region, continued strong southerly Gulf flow ahead of the approaching low will contribute to dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and precipitable water values ranging from 1.5 to 1.75 inches across the forecast area. This
will allow for destabilization across the area. Instability values will be fairly moderate, generally between 800-1200 J/kg.
However, with strengthening mid and upper level dynamics, wind profiles indicate a strongly sheared environment, including both
speed and directional shear, with 0-1 km shear values of 45-55 kts and effective deep layer bulk shear values of 75-85 kts. 0-1 km
helicity values are also anticipated to be between 450-600 m2/s2 during the evening and overnight hours. As a combination of these factors, there remains an Enhanced Risk for severe weather across
the north and central Georgia. Any severe thunderstorms that occur will be capable of producing tornadoes and strong, damaging wind gusts. With the potential for long-lived discrete cells, the threat certainly exists for particularly strong, long-track
tornadoes to impact the forecast area. A secondary threat associated with severe thunderstorms will be large hail, mainly
favored over western Georgia. However, with only moderate instability, the hail threat is not as pronounced as the threat for tornadoes and damaging winds.
Cadi40
Member
Would a QLCS entering the Charlotte region with that amount of instability be conducive for Tornadoes?
Oh yeah, more than plenty. Can't rule out some strong, long tracked tornadoes either... And I still worry that we too will have 2 rounds. One with the warm front lifting north than the QLCS. I also worry that we could get some discrete cells with the WF that could fire off some sig tornadoes, depending on how quickly we destabilize.
Downeastnc
Member
A rainshower moving into CLT with that setup would be conducive for tornados.....
With this helicity, absolutely.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A few hundred j/kg of CAPE would be enough instability to legitimately produce tornadoes in that kind of environment, any non-zero CAPE really could do it, but typically want to see at least something in the ballpark of 200-250 j/kg ish but again general rule of thumb based on personal experience and other big outbreaks. Some NWP models are forecasting anywhere from 500 to 1500 j/kg+
Dawgdaze22
Member
Is the threat for Atlanta increasing?
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Jessy89
Member
Anyone really believe there’s gonna be active tornado warnings at 5-7am?
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Downeastnc
Member
Yeah everyone needs to treat every single tornado warning as if it is OTG, radar or visually confirmed or not, there will be few if any fakers the next few days, sadly it will probably be very evident that the couplets are producing.....
BufordWX
Member
I believe there will be especially with the parameters in place. It’s not like the tornado threat just vanishes because it’s the middle of the night. Last year I was under a tornado warning at 5:00 AM.
Downeastnc
Member
There were numerous tornados in that time frame during the 2011 event.....many strong EF2-3 tornados....
bingcrosbyb
Member
Interesting to see the STP range below 5 and CAPE not too extreme ~ 1000 to 1500. What stands out is the effective helicity and shear.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I wonder if theres ever been an F5/EF5 tornado at night. I imagine a storm of that intensity would have a hard time forming during the night.
Jessy89
Member
Somewhere like Texas Kansas or Oklahoma I’m sure it’s happened
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hardly any other way to describe the HREF ensemble mean forecast parameter space in the Carolinas monday morning, other than it's insanely favorable for tornadoes & damaging straight line winds, especially given that these values are probably dampened by increasing model spread wrt range.
Greensburg KS comes to mind. That was at 10 pm.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Greensburg kansas tornado 2007 first ef5
Good Lord. That's all I have to say... I have never seen values that high here or in GA. Each model run continues to show this too. It's a trend that I doubt is going to just perish. GSP and mets here need to be discussing this. And I mean, like right now.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah no kidding, once you account for model spread, these values are going to probably end up verifying even higher...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Things are starting to fire up in Texas now. And things continue to look bad for the southeast tomorrow and Monday. Hope to see the threat decreasing, but doesn't look that is going to happen.
Dawgdaze22
Member
Never thought I’d have to worry in Metro Atlanta
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I've been through some tornadoes growing up in Woodstock. I was young, but distinctly remember a few that were pretty serious. This could be my first major outbreak here, in the Charlotte area, since I moved here. In fact, it will be. And I normally don't worry too much, but I am very worried about this setup. There is nothing to prevent this from coming to fruition. Normally we have that wedge and that has saved our butts multiple times. This won't be the case. Local mets and GSP need to get on this NOW!