4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

[Brick Tamland]

And what makes you say that?


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Because all the perimeters are there for it to be just as bad. We don't know how it will turn out yet. But to say it can't happen again because that happened not too long ago in 2011 is a silly reason to discount that it could happen again.

 

[farleydawg792]

Story Map Series

This story map was created with the Story Map Series application in ArcGIS Online.

noaa.maps.arcgis.com

Excellent website for the April 2011 event.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Because all the perimeters are there for it to be just as bad. We don't know how it will turn out yet. But to say it can't happen again because that happened not too long ago in 2011 is a silly reason to discount that it could happen again.

The parameters for 4/27/2011were better than this event. That event had no flaws.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

If I had to guess I would say that the current area that is hatched outside of the current moderate risk will be upgraded to moderate tomorrow and the area that is currently moderate will be upgraded to high.

 

[BHS1975]

Pretty high risk for 8am

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[FortMillSCWx]

Have any of you guys in the CLT and surrounding areas seen Brad Panovich this tweaked a couple of days out?

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Because all the perimeters are there for it to be just as bad. We don't know how it will turn out yet. But to say it can't happen again because that happened not too long ago in 2011 is a silly reason to discount that it could happen again.

To say there is no way this will be as bad as April 2011 because that was a generational event is not professional IMO. At least list reasons as to why it wont be as bad.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

What does the STP normally have to be to indicate a good chance of tornadoes? I guess I’m asking how far above average are those values?


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Even with STP (signifigant tornado perimeter) values around 1-3 can produce good tornadoes but when values start reaching 4-8+ values .. you're talking about the atmosphere easily being able to produce tornadoes and keep them sustained for a while

 

[RollTide18]

To say there is no way this will be as bad as April 2011 because that was a generational event is not professional IMO. At least list reasons as to why it wont be as bad.

At the same time, to say this will be as bad as April 27th isn't professional either.

While the setup for April 27th was damn near perfect for an outbreak, there were also a lot of small scale features, such as boundaries being set up from one of the most violent QLCS that Alabama has ever seen that had came through earlier that morning. It's appears that this will be a bad system but we just won't know how bad it will really get until that morning or when the event gets underway.

 

[Zander98al]

Spann says he wouldnt be suprised if a high risk is issued for part of alabama and the moderate expanded ?

 

[Arcc]

These soundings are scary, it’s as simple as that, Normally the NAM May over do it but even taking some things off these soundings, there still scary
Soundings from MS/ALView attachment 38871View attachment 38872soundings from NC/SCView attachment 38873View attachment 38874

That second sounding is pretty impressive.

 

[TheBatman]

Ok guys let’s stay on topic. Thanks

 

[Shaggy]

Pretty high risk for 8am

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See I've kind of let my guard down based on timing. Mods dont really keep the line that intense as it crosses central and eastern NC and historically early morning tornado outbreaks are rare.

Guess I'll watch it a while longer and see if it slows down timing wise.

 

[Arcc]

To say there is no way this will be as bad as April 2011 because that was a generational event is not professional IMO. At least list reasons as to why it wont be as bad.

Well here is the sounding of this event per the the 12z NAM vs April 27 at BMX. Do a little comparing of the two and you will see there really is no comparing the two.

 

[Zander98al]

Well here is the sounding of this event per the the 12z NAM vs April 27 at BMX. Do a little comparing of the two and you will see there really is no comparing the two.

Also worth noting a outflow boundary was positioned from tuscaloosa through birmingham which aided in intensity for the tuscaloosa/birmingham tornado

 

[bingcrosbyb]

12z 3km NAM STP valid Sunday afternoon. I don’t ever recall seeing such a large area off the chart.

 

[Arcc]

Also worth noting a outflow boundary was positioned from tuscaloosa through birmingham which aided in intensity for the tuscaloosa/birmingham tornado

The big outflow boundary was the one that sat across North AL, MS and GA. The Hackleburg, Smithville and Rainsville tornadoes formed off of it. That said it likely saved much of TN.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

12z 3km NAM STP valid Sunday afternoon. I don’t ever recall seeing such a large area off the chart.

I wonder why the colors dip down further south in North GA. Is there going to be a wedge in place ?

 

[Dawgdaze22]

12z 3km NAM STP valid Sunday afternoon. I don’t ever recall seeing such a large area off the chart.

Does anyone have this for Sunday night ?


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[Arcc]

12z 3km NAM STP valid Sunday afternoon. I don’t ever recall seeing such a large area off the chart.

They must have changed something as 0-1km EHI is from 2-4 in that area which is high, but not ungodly.