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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Arcc said:
It's probably mostly below the cap partly being sheared apart.
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With that initial area of crap, sfc convergence isn’t even impressive, it’s lackluster, so where is that crapvection coming from ? Significant Height falls/forcing is back to the west, also it’s capped, so why is this junk developing ? Maybe some low level convergence (850mb) instead of Surface convergence ? Is this why maybe the convection could be elevated? Idk it’s probably the NAM being the NAM
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
With that initial area of crap, sfc convergence isn’t even impressive, it’s lackluster, so where is that crapvection coming from ? Significant Height falls/forcing is back to the west, also it’s capped, so why is this junk developing ? Maybe some low level convergence (850mb) instead of Surface convergence ? Is this why maybe the convection could be elevated? Idk it’s probably the NAM being the NAM
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Gotta wait for the CAMs.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
With that initial area of crap, sfc convergence isn’t even impressive, it’s lackluster, so where is that crapvection coming from ? Significant Height falls/forcing is back to the west, also it’s capped, so why is this junk developing ? Maybe some low level convergence (850mb) instead of Surface convergence ? Is this why maybe the convection could be elevated? Idk it’s probably the NAM being the NAM
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The NAM does like being the NAM.
 
Mmmm, there’s literally a firehose of very high precipitable water (over 2 inches which is quite high for this time of the year) with nice 850mb moisture transport where that crap is, coincidence? 36498805-7AD5-4984-9431-15B4B7C9EA14.pngFF511959-6BF9-421B-BC32-91C3223B11B0.pngEE953211-586C-4289-B781-9B83E18B760D.png
 
So, as for as, the NAM soundings go... should we discount them? They seem to be the most extreme. This sounding is basically for Charlotte:
 

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ryan1234 said:
So, as for as, the NAM soundings go... should we discount them? They seem to be the most extreme. This sounding is basically for Charlotte:
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It handles cape better than globals since it’s a meso model, if it still holds with cape by tomorrow like that it’s quite possible that soundings could pan out similar, it’s actually been increasing cape these past runs
 
How's the Euro looking?
 
Looks like Texas is gonna get some action tomorrow.

cbfe6add8af83b082c15093855b58eba.jpg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It handles cape better than globals since it’s a meso model, if it still holds with cape by tomorrow like that it’s quite possible that soundings could pan out similar, it’s actually been increasing cape these past runs
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Thank you, I noticed the increase in CAPE as well. I tell ya, for the most part, I do love tracking severe weather. But this setup is legit and honestly, quite scary looking.
 
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