Some similarities between the ECMWFs precip swath and HRRR helicity swaths.
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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- severe weather tornadoes
That looks pretty ominous.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Oof. Id watch today and tonight and see how models projected things and how they actually happen over texas it may give us a glimpse into tommrow some.
Dawgdaze22
Member
BHS1975
Member
NAM threat decreasing here.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
NAM threat decreasing here.
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Curious to see how the 0z HRRR looks because the NAM's thermals have absolutely sucked in TX/OK and it's been way too overzealous with crapvection thus far.
Nearly every short-range, high resolution model forecast convection to have already fired in the lower Rio Grande Valley last night and nothing happened. Strongly suspect they vastly underestimated the mid-level capping inversion, which is probably to be expected when you have a roaring subtropical jet like this that advects elevated mixed layers (EMLs) like no tomorrow. The lack of crapvection there moves the needle a bit in favor of boom over bust tomorrow in MS/AL, still a lot left to resolve however.
Reality:
Jessy89
Member
There’s a chance Nam is overdoing this. And it backs off a little bit last minute
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Cadi40
Member
I'm worried some models and parameters will actually bust low in the Carolina's, however I hope that's far from the case. Given the situation, it doesn't really matter at this point what the exact numerical parameters are showing, we need to prepare for a severe outbreak across the Southeast.
JHS
Member
May 5 1989 was a rough day in what is now the GSP county warning area. The 1994 system was basically a couple of supercells that came out of GA and AL and crossed the GSP CWA from Habersham county GA to northeast of Charlotte NC. Parts of Oconee county got hit very hard that day. Another tornado from those same cells touched down near Charlotte. On to this system, I wonder if the wedge will really leave this area. I know this one if forecast to and the wind field favors it eroding but I have saw the wedge hang on too many times over the last 30 years. IF it stay in the area the threat of tornadoes will be very high near it.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
This is for real time weather data if anybody doesnt know about it. Itll be handy too look at tomorrow https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
pcbjr
Member
FWIW ... I hope and pray this whole thing busts (and it might) and that everyone has a safe Easter ... there's enough else going on ... ? ? ?
bingcrosbyb
Member
The NW Alabama updraft helicity path that starts in MS has been pretty steady across multiple models the past 2 days. Interesting to see how it develops Sunday.
NAM threat decreasing here.
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Sadly, it's not significant enough to really make a difference. Plus, I try to rely on short term modeling at this point. And the fact that it's one run. I am not letting my guard down yet. And I still feel like the I-77 is still going to be a hotspot. It's all about the warm front.
April is typically not favorable for my backyard (Fall months are prime) but I think some tornadoes are possible Davie County NC East to Fayetteville. Not a lot and prob not a big outbreak IMO. This is just for NC given poor timing, widespread rains, etc.
Timing don’t matter much when you have a 60kt+ low level jet coinciding with 1000+jkg SBcape and over 100 jkgs of low level instability, sure daytime adds more heating into the mix and would likely make things muchhh worse, but those parameters alone are insane, and it’s starting to look like areas around CLT-East May see storms around 9-10am, which allows a few hours of further destabilization,
I’m not saying there’s gonna be tornadoes everywhere, but timing in this general setup does not matter as much as it would normally would, the thing that could throw a wrench in things tbh is messy storm modes, and even with that the wind damage threat would be significant, these parameters are worse than the soundings out that moderate last year in NC, so in my opinion a slight risk (even rn) Is way to low
Dating back to the wright weather days, seen a lot of commentary on Spann but to be honest, this is the first time I have ever listened to him and he seems pretty on point, even roasted a weenier or two.
49 weather
Member
Guin, Al April 3, 1974. Just after 9 pm
BufordWX
Member
Nasty looking hook in Texas right now.
BHS1975
Member
Gonna be smoke from Mexico in the mix too.
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The 18z run pushed an outflow boundary out in front of the main convection but yeah as a whole it was a step back from the ridiculous numbers previouslyNAM threat decreasing here.
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I still wouldn't sleep on Monday afternoon/ evening slong the front itself. Any updraft that can get going an survive the dry air aloft has decent hail/wind potential
gawxnative
Member
Also, BOTH the F 5 that hit Tanner AL the same night Then also the Oak Grove AL one on 04/08/1998
Which make me wonder if Tanner AL has been hit more than any other city/town with 3 F5's 1974, 2011
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
greensburg kansas
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Latest from WRAL.
UPDATE: Parts of North Carolina have a Level 3 (Enhanced) Risk for Severe Weather Monday. The latest thoughts are that the line of storms is arriving later than originally thought and will move through Monday morning through midday.
We still could see Severe Storms late Sunday night through early Monday morning before that strong line gets in.
UPDATE: Parts of North Carolina have a Level 3 (Enhanced) Risk for Severe Weather Monday. The latest thoughts are that the line of storms is arriving later than originally thought and will move through Monday morning through midday.
We still could see Severe Storms late Sunday night through early Monday morning before that strong line gets in.
Daylight being a requirement for tomorrow, Jackson MS, likely I55 north from there. On Monday, I95 in SE NC. Overnight and looking for wholesale straight line wind, NE AL, NW GA, SE TN for what will likely be an epic bowing segment.
That was a very rough night and I remember it well. There was a lot of heavy rain during the day with 2-4 inches across the Charlotte area. Then after it got dark, I remember all heck breaking loose. I remember Ray Boylan being on air for over 3 hours as those storms were bearing down. We actually lost part of an oak tree in my parents yard and Hugo took the rest 4 months later
SimeonNC
Member
Interestingly enough the local met at TWC news doesn't really mention anything other than lightning being a threat Monday morning for the greater Charlotte area.
For the love of humanity, I hope that was a mistake on the teleprompter...
Dawgdaze22
Member
Had a friend of mine in Metro Atlanta text me and say it’s all BS and that “today has shown there is no threat for us” wtf??
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SimeonNC
Member
When going over their radar model for Monday morning and it showed the line of storms, all she mentioned was lightning though they did show the severe risk map that had Eastern NC under enhanced.
Cadi40
Member
In my opinion it’s a mistake on behalf of the SPC to not issue at least an Enhanced risk for the entire state of NC. Are we missing something they’re seeing?
Snowflowxxl
Member
lmaooooooooooo. I will say today was a beautiful day out. Tomorrow night is going to be hell on earth though.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Don't know what he/she is looking at. In fact, most ATL mets have been pretty serious about the threat tomorrow, as they should be. Kirk Mellish mentions bust potential in his blog but that it's not worth anticipating and letting your guard down
Dawgdaze22
Member
He was referring to models and soundings?? I was like i think it’s the opposite lmao
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mbway091
Member
That’s entirely possible. These folks are the best of the best. It’s also still a bit early for NC. I imagine if they did expand the threat they would do it with tomorrow’s updates.
NoSnowATL
Member
It could bust. We have seen it before. Let’s hope this one is a dud too!
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See, this is EXACTLY why I worry. This setup has been advertised on modeling for over a week. Yet, the closer we get to this event. modeling has been constantly persistent with a significant outbreak.
That's just irresponsible. And she should be fired. I am so tired of Met's not getting the respect they deserve. Media is so scared of negative ratings, that they will literally downplay weather until the last minute from fear of being scrutinized and trashed. But I have no respect for any channel or legitimate met who says "lightning is our biggest problem."
This. Look, nobody is above screwing up or missing something, but the SPC is as good as it gets and they get it right A LOT when idiots like us are over here chirping about what we "think" they ought to be doing. Sure, forums exist for weenies like us to play armchair meteorologist and HOPE for things to be terrible, lament when things aren't terrible, and no one cares what we think about anything, nor should they. SPC? Not so much. There's a lot riding on every update during a system like this and those dudes know what they're doing.
I would stay right in northern MS to NW AL. Probably the best combination of low level lapse rates, 0-3km Cape and forcing to overcome the warm layer aloft.