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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Cadi40 said:
So would you say chances for an outbreak especially in the Carolinas are going up as of now?
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I could be wrong but the threat in the Carolinas isn’t till after 12am Sunday night Monday morning. The tornado threat appears fairly high. Stp levels appear to be between 1-2. If modeling is correct


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All I gotta say is wow
Soundings near CLT, even in the morning, there’s over 100 jkgs of low level instability (3CAPE), which would allow low level mesocyclones to punch down, these soundings are scary CE2FDEF4-0397-46EC-BDCA-98BA4EF83286.png678CF192-58F6-4353-AB1D-CEA0E31FEEFB.pngD5DA3C3E-36B4-44CC-9E16-EC3DD5F00997.png35333A7C-1F00-4624-881E-EF90D35BCE7B.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
All I gotta say is wow
Soundings near CLT, even in the morning, there’s over 100 jkgs of low level instability (3CAPE), which would allow low level mesocyclones to punch down, these soundings are scary View attachment 38915View attachment 38916View attachment 38917View attachment 38918
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Egads! That is downright scary. I have a feeling that the I-77 corridor is going to the hotspot for tornadoes (some possibly strong) A lot of the guidance seems to be pointing in that direction.
 
ryan1234 said:
Egads! That is downright scary. I have a feeling that the I-77 corridor is going to the hotspot for tornadoes (some possibly strong) A lot of the guidance seems to be pointing in that direction.
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Yeah, it shows a solid amount of theta E air advected with the LLvL jet, and a solid plume of cape over us from the LLvL jet, over 1500jkg of SBcape with over 100jkgs of 3CAPE is overkill
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah, it shows a solid amount of theta E air advected with the LLvL jet, and a solid plume of cape over us from the LLvL jet, over 1500jkg of SBcape with over 100jkgs of 3CAPE is overkill
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Yup! Back during the Feb outbreak, that was a low cape/high shear environment. And we managed to get an EF2 from that setup. This setup is far more dangerous, so you can imagine why people are concerned. The only difference is timing, but that also seems to be working against our favor, at this point.
 
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