Psalm 148:8
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Oh yes they did! Headline in their graphic! See previous pages. If graphic is gone, I also commented on that language...
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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather tornadoes
Ron Burgundy
Member
“Based on ONE FORECASTER’S OPINION” is the operative phrase there.
I don't like that. That warm front is moving north. And any wedge hope is dwindling.
Plausible. Forms early and gets strong which helps it get around the meager low level lapse rates and high shear, pseudo boundary provides extra lift and helicity. That would be a sight to behold, more or less a Hackleburg type cell.
Lostnthaweather85
Member
The dew point at mobile is up to 60
NSSL WRF also shows really the one lone supercell hitting central AL, although it is probably a bit more realistic than the powerhouse the ARW shows.
This is how I see things for GA......I think we see some strong/severe storms with the warm front moving northward through the state. Then I think we get "capped" for the rest of the night until we get some stronger forcing late late night or into Monday morning. That could lead to all hell breaking loose since we won't have a rain mass cluttered mess. Just how I see it right now for GA.
Snowflowxxl
Member
HRRR starting to show its typical apocalyptic scenarios, so take with grain of salt
the hrrr has been terrible with those storms back in Texas, it had them developing way south, but it’s not verifying that way right now, and instead there developing way north than modeled, this could mean a larger warm sector tommorow 
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That MCS forming to the NW than what the hrrr showed is big news, the root to the potential MCS further south which was a supercell is done, this is big, and could have big impacts on tommorow
Day 2 hatched for tornadoes.... 
That reminds me of this 
"What the what?!" That's such a huge shift from today's day 3. This thing is really slowing down...
Jrips2710
Member
New outlook
Snowflowxxl
Member
Good looking outlook, matches what my thinking pretty much
Brent
Member
Jrips2710
Member
Discussion pertaining to the Southeast 
That’s some big wording for areas in NC/SC/VA/GA, would not be suprised to see a moderate tommorow 
Snowflowxxl
Member
5z HRRR still looks apocalyptic. I'm going to sleep now and probably won't wake up till 11 lol. Need to be able to stay up late tomorrow for the show
I said one forecaster because there was only one guy giving the severe weather briefing when they put out that graphic.
But you're correct, I should have said earlier *forecasting crew*
Wow hrrr... it’s the LR hrrr and tends to over do sum things but this looks quite similar to the NAM 
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Hrrr also shows a large hail threat with solid VILs, strongest updrafts could have some big hail even with CAPE somewhat low due to the amount of shear around 6km 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Much larger portion of NC in the level 3 zone now. Don't like seeing that at all. Wonder if it could be upgraded tomorrow to a level 4.
(I refuse to say the name of the categories anymore because they don't make sense.)
BufordWX
Member
Tornado warned supercell in Texas has two different rotations right now.
Shaggy
Member
The wording is no good either. Essentially going with the worse of the 2 scenarios. SRH levels are extreme as he puts it. Any supercell is gonna rotate and we could be in for a tornado outbreak.
packfan98
Moderator
Pivotal weather is free. Take a look.
Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather
View GFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
CIPS slowed down now splitting this system over 2 days opposed to one day the last few runs showed. Here the updated CIPS
Today
Monday
Today
Monday
The key for the Carolinas tomorrow:
The main question with this outlook is convective mode. There are
two possibilities. The first is that the band of thunderstorms will
have discrete elements and gaps that will be favorable for
supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings at 15Z from southern
Virginia southward into northern South Carolina show looped
hodographs with 0-3 km storm relative helicities in the extreme
catogory, generally near or above 600 m2/s2. This would support a
threat for strong tornadoes associated with the more dominant
supercells. A wind damage and hail threat would be likely with
supercells and with the more organized line segments.
The second scenario would be that a squall-line is ongoing at 12Z
from eastern Georgia northward into the western Carolinas and
Virginia. In that case, widespread wind damage would be likely. A
QLCS tornado threat would exist with the stronger bowing line
segments. Hail would also be possible with the more intense parts of
the line.
The questions is which one will it be?
The main question with this outlook is convective mode. There are
two possibilities. The first is that the band of thunderstorms will
have discrete elements and gaps that will be favorable for
supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings at 15Z from southern
Virginia southward into northern South Carolina show looped
hodographs with 0-3 km storm relative helicities in the extreme
catogory, generally near or above 600 m2/s2. This would support a
threat for strong tornadoes associated with the more dominant
supercells. A wind damage and hail threat would be likely with
supercells and with the more organized line segments.
The second scenario would be that a squall-line is ongoing at 12Z
from eastern Georgia northward into the western Carolinas and
Virginia. In that case, widespread wind damage would be likely. A
QLCS tornado threat would exist with the stronger bowing line
segments. Hail would also be possible with the more intense parts of
the line.
The questions is which one will it be?
Shaggy
Member
I dont like the fact they seem to lean towards scenario #1
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
One thing worth noting so far is the way precipitation seem to be evolving with the warm front. It appears to be light and scattered. Also note the lack of precipitation over middle and southern Mississippi. If these two factors hold that would not be good for later
Tornado watch expanded
Can’t recall a briefing this concerning in central NC
Here’s GSP they aren’t as concerned about tornados as RAH but do mention we could see a strong long track tornado along or south of 85.
https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/YouTube/brief.pdf
Z
Zander98al
Guest
HRRR has backed off on the potential convection along the warm from late this afternoon, mainly because mousture return isn't as aggressive as previoisly projected (thus a stronger cap).
Jessy89
Member
In the nw upstate sc area I’m not to worried. As I believe it will be weakening as it’s moving in. Doesn’t mean there won’t be a isolated tornado. But I’ve seen this time and time again. It will be weakening as it’s moving in. And probably restrengthen in the Eastern upstate
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Now is wait and watch mode for alabama.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Nice little sattelite picture of alabama peep all the elevated storms 