Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Arguably the scariest NWP model run I've ever seen around here for severe. Nocturnal tornado events are also very deadly, not liking this one bit.
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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak
- Thread starter Webberweather53
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- severe weather tornadoes
Arguably the scariest NWP model run I've ever seen around here for severe. Nocturnal tornado events are also very deadly, not liking this one bit.
Keldeo
Member
Twitter thread on the 3km NAM
Snowflowxxl
Member
The WRF's get into range tonight. We should start to be able to get a good grasp of this thing starting with the 0z models. As Arcc said high boom or bust potential.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Good thread.i think people across the southeast shouldnt exactly follow the timing given out. I would say to start watching the weather as the warm front moves north because even a small error could produce a strong tornado and if anyones caught off guard by it, it wouldn't be good. Not liking the idea of there being some suprises?
Mason Dixon
Member
Lets hope Cameron Nixon is on to something with the rain cooled inflow
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here in north Georgia what is the chances we get upgraded from enhanced to moderate and the moderate risk for Alabama and points west go to a high risk. Thanks
Jessy89
Member
I expect some adjustments to the threat area tomorrow. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the enhanced shift East into the Carolinas. And moderate probably shift a little East as well. Just a opinion of course
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I have no doubt a high risk will be issued tonight for the MS Valley. I think the mod risk will extend to GA and parts of the Carolina's. We still need more data though. A lot can and will change. It's a very fluid situation.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I really think there are too many categories. Too confusing. Should just be slight, moderate, high risk.
Yeah, the "enhanced" risk category confuses a lot of people, IMO.
proud dad
Member
Thought this was interesting.
Parker
Member
I enjoy reading Tim Colemans posts. I have read them all the way back to his days on the ABC 33/40 weather blog. He is typically pretty spot on in his analysis. I am getting the feeling that this will indeed be an event that has a high bust potential for sure. Will be interesting to watch it all unfold.
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bingcrosbyb
Member
With a high risk on the table, below are the last high risk days affecting the state of Alabama in the past 30 years (from AL.com)
* April 28, 2014
* April 27, 2011
* April 24, 2010
* April 10, 2009
* March 1, 2007
* April 7, 2006
* Nov. 10, 2002
* Oct. 13, 2001
* May 5, 1999
* April 16, 1998
* April 8, 1998
* May 2, 1997
* Nov. 27, 1994
* March 27, 1994
* Nov. 15, 1989
* April 28, 2014
* April 27, 2011
* April 24, 2010
* April 10, 2009
* March 1, 2007
* April 7, 2006
* Nov. 10, 2002
* Oct. 13, 2001
* May 5, 1999
* April 16, 1998
* April 8, 1998
* May 2, 1997
* Nov. 27, 1994
* March 27, 1994
* Nov. 15, 1989
Dewpoint Dan
Member
The only date that really stands out to me is October 13, 2001. Strange to have a high risk that time of year.
pcbjr
Member
NWS JAX getting in on it, and normally they are more conservative ...
Dawgdaze22
Member
Still looking as scary as it was earlier this afternoon?
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Keldeo
Member
Another thread
Z
Zander98al
Guest
I bet everybody's itching to see some of CAM's tonight. If they're still favorable i wouldn't be surprised for a high risk area in the next update.