4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

[tennessee storm]

Wow at the 0z nam... plain uglyy Large warm sector getting into west Kentucky ... if that happens we got major issues my friends ... that’s some insane wind field that area even ... per verbatim. 0z is a large tornado outbreak to be honest . What’s scary is the nam is starting get in to its wheelhouse

 

[Cadi40]

I do find it odd how the STP in particular peaks in the CLT metro and then decreases a little after exiting.

 

[BufordWX]

I believe the wrf-arw model tends to overdo on supercells, but if this verifies. Oh dear.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

ARW was heading for hell

 

[Zander98al]

I kinda feel like theres a good potential for a bust across east MS and AL.

 

[Zander98al]

Spann put high risk for tornadoes sunday

 

[ryan1234]

I do find it odd how the STP in particular peaks in the CLT metro and then decreases a little after exiting.

Climatology speaking there are 3 tornado "hotspots" in NC. The Southern Piedmont, The Triangle, and the I-95 corridor. I don't know if modeling is taking that into consideration or if it's bad luck.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Woah

 

[ryan1234]

Woah View attachment 38944View attachment 38945

HOLY CRAP! I don't think I have EVER seen anything like this in Charlotte. It's almost nauseating.

 

[Cadi40]

Woah View attachment 38944View attachment 38945

Earlier today I was viewing Brad Panovich's STP model and it was illustrating values of 1-2 in the Charlotte area, and the one above is showing 10, Am I missing something?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Earlier today I was viewing Brad Panovich's STP model and it was illustrating values of 1-2 in the Charlotte area, and the one above is showing 10, Am I missing something?

It’s the nam 3km

 

[ontherocks]

Since this is rather serious, particularly with everything else going on, maybe we hold off on the boom/bust hopes and fears for the moment and focus on the task at hand, an accurate picture of what’s going to happen so people can prepare.....no offense meant towards anyone, just think this may be important to stay focused with this one.....

 

[Jessy89]

I do think the nam is aggressive. because 3-7am hows these storms that strong during those hours? They done lost the daytime heating


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[Zander98al]

I do think the nam is aggressive. because 3-7am hows these storms that strong during those hours? They done lost the daytime heating


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Strong LLJ can aid in instability.

 

[Brick Tamland]

The models look scarier and scarier each run.

 

[ryan1234]

Strong LLJ can aid in instability.

There have been a substantial number of outbreaks in the SE/Carolina's that occurred after midnight.

 

[Jessy89]

There have been a substantial number of outbreaks in the SE/Carolina's that occurred after midnight.

I could see this thing dying a little. Sparing the upstate. Then blowing back up in the midlands of South Carolina. But bottom line everyone must pay attention to this one.


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[Keldeo]

Hey want to see a 4000 CAPE Sounding? (Western MS BTW)

 

[Arcc]

If it does bust, it will most likely be on the tornado threat. I think the wind threat will remain.

Absolutely. The biggest bust factor will be the possibility of discrete supercells out front. A pretty good tornado and wind threat will remain with the QLCS.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I could see this thing dying a little. Sparing the upstate. Then blowing back up in the midlands of South Carolina. But bottom line everyone must pay attention to this one.


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LLvL jet is gonna be so strong it’s gonna pump in cape, even without daytime heating there’s gonna be 750-1500jkg of SBcape, in the upstate aswell, mountains may break it up a bit but shear will keep it going