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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Snowfan said:
mcd0350.gif

Tornado Watch being issued shortly for MS.
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Could we see a pds watch, maybe.
 
EMTime said:
Could we see a pds watch, maybe.
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Not PDS.

EDIT: Never mind. SPC must have made a stealth change at the last second, because the initial release wasn't PDS (nor was it mentioned in the mesoscale discussion).
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
I’d watch this stuff here the hrrr shows later in GA, it’s happened before where the prefrontal supercells way out ahead end up being the ones that do something, not saying this is the case here but that’s something to watch View attachment 39127
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Some nasty hooks mixed in there ?
 
So, I did some reading on the supercell tornadoes versus the QLCS tornadoes. As I understand it, the supercell tornadoes are from discreet storms, and are usually the most powerful and longer lasting tornadoes. The QLCS tornadoes come from squall lines and are usually weaker, but can spin up quick and give less warning that a supercell tornado. Does that sound right? Which scenario looks likely for NC tomorrow?
 
BirdManDoomW said:
40s and rain in the NC mtns. Wedge building for now but winds will rip it apart later. Maybe this area can help disrupt the line before it reaches eastern NC. Timing and cold wedge are hard to predict.
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I just don’t think the wedge is gonna hold. We were in the lower 50s in Union county, NC all morning and it’s now jumped to the mid 60s. The stronger wedges that prevent severe weather will typically keep us in the 50s longer
 
Brick Tamland said:
So, I did some reading on the supercell tornadoes versus the QLCS tornadoes. As I understand it, the supercell tornadoes are from discreet storms, and are usually the most powerful and longer lasting tornadoes. The QLCS tornadoes come from squall lines and are usually weaker, but can spin up quick and give less warning that a supercell tornado. Does that sound right? Which scenario looks likely for NC tomorrow?
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Little bit of both
 
Chazwin said:
I just don’t think the wedge is gonna hold. We were in the lower 50s in Union county, NC all morning and it’s now jumped to the mid 60s. The stronger wedges that prevent severe weather will typically keep us in the 50s longer
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mid low 50’s here in the upstate. One thing that is concerning is temperatures are expected to rise this evening pushing close to 70 in the early morning hours tomorrow. Warm front lifting? We’ll see if the wedge can hold here. I’m just not sure tbh
 
BHS1975 said:
Not gonna save us here. Dews will be near 70. At least the sun will be up.
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That’s a very premature thing to say. I’m upstream of you and what happens here can certainly help you. There’s always a chance this thing washes out with 4” of rain or more here and sends a skinny much less potent squall line your way. Nobody knows even timing is likely to be off 4 to 8 hours IMO.
 
When there's a good wedge it can often reach to here. I haven't been outside to see how it feels overall but I don't think it is. It's 72 with winds out of the southeast instead of northeast.
 
What I find interesting is what the HRRR shows, before the QLCS makes it here in the Carolinas, it shows these streaks of reflectivity ahead, I seen those streaks before in past tornado outbreaks west, could be CU, or just how intense that low level jet is 8A95975C-83B0-460A-AD5D-B6B83CAD6A3E.png163088CF-C791-4573-AEB6-6BD2682E7AD7.png
 
I'm in the far eastern reaches of Sumter County, SC and it's been pretty much sunshine here today. Dew point is 60, temp is 75. I'm not sure if that will make things here worse today or not.
 
I’m not saying the wedge is gonna save anyone in fact I expect it to be destroyed in this setup. It’s still complicated tho a destroyed CAD can still alter the severe setup in other ways based on “when it’s destroyed” “timing can easily be slowed with storms training over upslope areas” “washout potential in the west could dry the East a little” and many other complexities. Everyone is impacted by upstream obs, for western NC I typically look at upstate SC if tornadoes are on the ground then temps at 48 and light rain are plenty to support long track tornadoes etc similar to past events. If upstate SC does not perform then I look to Mountain City, TN to see what the squall line potential is. All of that said, we won’t know until 4 hours out or so for any particular backyard.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
What I find interesting is what the HRRR shows, before the QLCS makes it here in the Carolinas, it shows these streaks of reflectivity ahead, I seen those streaks before in past tornado outbreaks west, could be CU, or just how intense that low level jet is View attachment 39140View attachment 39141
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Those are some signs that WV and VA could steal the show with that severe wind potential shown there. I’ve seen it many times the potential shifts north can cause a little down-sloping and storm delay for western NC. I hope this is the case again but who knows.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
mid low 50’s here in the upstate. One thing that is concerning is temperatures are expected to rise this evening pushing close to 70 in the early morning hours tomorrow. Warm front lifting? We’ll see if the wedge can hold here. I’m just not sure tbh
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Its already at 70 at RDU, wedging is just to the west of us in the GSO area though.
 
The line in LA is getting into more crowded territory, lots of larger cities starting to get lined up, Monroe LA is a big city and there are several areas of rotation in the line moving in its general direction....
 
Apparently there is going to be an SPC update soon, does anyone think there will be an upgrade to high for the Day 1 areas?
 
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