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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

BufordWX said:
I believe the wrf-arw model tends to overdo on supercells, but if this verifies. Oh dear.View attachment 38941
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And it's brother the NMMB can't find the severe risk even if it were standing on a hornets nest. There you have it folks, apocalyptic death or Peeing into the wind.

I am curious about the 3km NAM, it used to go on dates with the ARW and now it has dumped him and goes with the NMMB recently.
 
Arcc said:
And it's brother the NMMB can't find the severe risk even if it were standing on a hornets nest. There you have it folks, apocalyptic death or Peeing into the wind.

I am curious about the 3km NAM, it used to go on dates with the ARW and now it has dumped him and goes with the NMMB recently.
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3k NAM is pretty crazy with the STP parameters (not sure how it feels about the helicity though). I would go with it's the 3k NAM doing it's usual overhype of severe but at least before nighttime, the 12k looks to support it. I think the 3k goes farther than the 12k at night.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
3k NAM is pretty crazy with the STP parameters (not sure how it feels about the helicity though). I would go with it's the 3k NAM doing it's usual overhype of severe but at least before nighttime, the 12k looks to support it. I think the 3k goes farther than the 12k at night.
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The 3km NAM shows high parameters, but never does anything with them. Really quite tame. But like I said its been like this so far this year. Still a garbage model though.

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Look at what I found on our hot off the press GFS...

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(South Central MS, you can probably find the spot where I clicked)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
LLvL jet is gonna be so strong it’s gonna pump in cape, even without daytime heating there’s gonna be 750-1500jkg of SBcape, in the upstate aswell, mountains may break it up a bit but shear will keep it going
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The western Atlantic, and especially the Gulf, is incredibly warm right now. This is probably helping enhance the instability of the air getting advected northward in the lower levels. Not great for those hoping the overnight timing will put a damper on things (ofc this would be way worse for the Carolinas with daytime heating).

gulf_warm.png
 
**For GA** I have noticed models have been trending stronger with the warm front convection/severe indices then almost like we mix out (something like that) into the overnight and into Monday morning before ramping up again before the squall line moves in.
 
RVD said:
The western Atlantic, and especially the Gulf, is incredibly warm right now. This is probably helping enhance the instability of the air getting advected northward in the lower levels. Not great for those hoping the overnight timing will put a damper on things (ofc this would be way worse for the Carolinas with daytime heating).

View attachment 38948
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Yeah, you can see with that plume of cape it comes from the GOM/Atlantic, and low levels are extremely moist, Above normal GOM/Atlantic temps near the east coast are definitely helping this moderate CAPE plume associated with the LLvL jet 21A98F9B-02C4-447C-AEE5-775FCCF077E8.png
 
One thing's clear is that we're probably looking at multiple rounds of convection with this system.

Round 1: Early Sunday Morning (mostly elevated / non-severe). This round in particular will have to be watched for the flash flooding risk.

Round 2: Mid/Late Sunday Afternoon along the warm front. The extent of capping will dictate how widespread the coverage is, but conditions will still be favorable for some severe weather with the cells being more discrete.

Round 3: Sunday Evening / Monday Morning along the cold front. This will obviously be the main round , which will definitely be more widespread because of the better forcing. However, it should be more of a damaging wind threat with eastern extent as it quickly become linear
 
Does the new Day 2 come out at 130 or 2? I’ll probably fall asleep before either lol. I also don’t expect it to change much from the day 3 tbh
 
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