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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Dewpoint Dan said:
I really think there are too many categories. Too confusing. Should just be slight, moderate, high risk.
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I have been saying that for a while. I would go with four, though. Slight, moderate, enhanced, and high. Slight and marginal are really the same thing. And I don't know why they have moderate as higher than enhanced when moderate means average, and enhance means to intensify and make greater than average. Maybe it would be better as slight, moderate, elevated, and high.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Wtf, this is why the LR HRRR can’t be trusted, looks like a copy and paste of its apocalyptic May 20th runs last year (the high risk that busted in OK) View attachment 38932View attachment 38933
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The real question to ask is how was the overall atmosphere modeled and handled compared to reality and projecting that time frame onto now? Is it even a similar setup?
 
Correct me if I am wrong, but I still think and believe that a lot of uncertainty remains simply because we don't commercial aircraft in the air collecting data. I know it's mentioned on here, but unfortunately, this could really have an impact on this system and many others. We're overdue for an outbreak, but that doesn't mean it's guaranteed. Remember good ole Mother Nature doesn't really abide by a calendar.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
Holy hell!! I imagine the next frame will look pretty ugly for NGA...
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Next frame actually doesn't look quite as bad, but it's still an eye opener. For it to be nighttime/early morning and there to still be a lot of coverage of STP's around 2 or higher is something.

Only takes the one that's in your neighborhood. May be a long night.
 
Really curious too see how the other CAM's show precip in the potential outbreak area. Currently theyre not to the time period ?
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Next frame actually doesn't look quite as bad, but it's still an eye opener. For it to be nighttime/early morning and there to still be a lot of coverage of STP's around 2 or higher is something.

Only takes the one that's in your neighborhood. May be a long night.
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Considering how extreme it looks before and after the threat gets here, looks like nighttime might save us from the absolute worst, but you’re right, only takes one...
 
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