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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Each HRRR run begins to look worse and worse for central Alabama. Rotating cells within the line are gonna be a major problem later on. 15z HRRR had a cell directly over my house
 
First rumble of thunder today, and certainly not the last. Only 58/53 here, stuck in the wedge. I'm not sure how long this CAD can hold in place, but the warm front isn't supposed to clear here until 8-12 tonight, depending on which model you look at.
 
Based on latest guidance I could see the SPC upgrading Virginia from enhanced to MOD risk. Perhaps extending the enhanced back west to include south/West Virginia all the way to DC. Interesting to note the DC area could see the severe weather before places like Wilkesboro/Winston-Salem see any action with winds approaching 70 to 80mph. Could this give central/eastern NC more tornado potential with a lag in time? Maybe. 5706F280-76C3-41DD-8210-B7EEC0C3C304.jpeg
 
Some decent potential for widespread damage for Mountain City, TN, West Jefferson, NC, Blacksburg, VA. I would rather deal with an isolated tornado than to see widespread damage from wind. I’m not sure how far this line will sag as it exits north-east. But prob safe to say Iredell County NC and points north.
 
Last edited:
BirdManDoomW said:
There’s likely going to be widespread damage for Mountain City, TN, West Jefferson, NC, Blacksburg, VA. I would rather deal with an isolated tornado than to see widespread damage from wind. I’m not sure how far this line will sag as it exits north-east. But prob safe to say Iredell County NC and points north.
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Stop with absolutes
 
The presence of upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points in much of
LA and southern MS will spread north and likely reach northern MS to
western AL between 21-00Z. This should overlap strong low-level
shear (0-1 km SRH of 400+ m2/s2) as the low-level jet strengthens
and shifts northeast. The environment will favor embedded supercells
capable of producing strong tornadoes and damaging winds, the most
substantial of which may occur from northeast LA through
north-central MS into northern AL and southern middle TN. There is
still enough uncertainty with regard to convection outpacing
stronger surface-based instability (especially with northeast
extent), as well as the overall convective mode, to preclude an
upgrade to High Risk.
 
Good call from SPC shifting enhanced to eastern TN they have to be seeing what I am on the short range models. I really think it’s going to blast through hard for TN very quickly in the morning.
 
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