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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Very true . Hopefully things work in our favor with less instability and more junk convection. Even if that happens damaging wind will still be a big concern as this will be a very dynamic system


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Yep don't sleep on the wind potential here. 70-90kt at 850 50-60kt at 925, its not going to take a lot of convection to force that downward. Even if we get lucky and somehow we don't see a number of supercells a well developed line of storms is going to have the potential for a widespread wind damage event.
 
I think upstate sc western nc and maybe extreme ne Georgia will luck out. With this line coming between 3am and 7am Monday morning don’t get me wrong tornado threat is there but stp levels are between 1-2. However west of those areas and east of those areas stp is higher. My point is some people may be spared by the timing of this line.


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Gut feeling says west of 65 is going to be the bullseye. I have a feeling East AL and GA will luck out with this system. Just a Gut feeling.
 
Whoa check out that bow echo.

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Gut feeling says west of 65 is going to be the bullseye. I have a feeling East AL and GA will luck out with this system. Just a Gut feeling.
I ve got some concerns with the clearing/thinning that keeps showing down near Selma-Montgomery.. Historiy time and again is that cells that in that area get real nasty quickly.. With flow they would get carried into GA along the "Us 29/GA 34 Tornado Alley"...
 
I ve got some concerns with the clearing/thinning that keeps showing down near Selma-Montgomery.. Historiy time and again is that cells that in that area get real nasty quickly.. With flow they would get carried into GA along the "Us 29/GA 34 Tornado Alley"...
Add to that the very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.... that provides even more moisture and instability, and quicker.
 
I ve got some concerns with the clearing/thinning that keeps showing down near Selma-Montgomery.. Historiy time and again is that cells that in that area get real nasty quickly.. With flow they would get carried into GA along the "Us 29/GA 34 Tornado Alley"...

12z HRRR sounding for Newnan at 21z Sunday:

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Perhaps the only saving grace is that there's a fairly deep cap (granted fairly weak) between 850mb and 650mb., which when combined with the nebulous forcing along the warm front, should keep the coverage / intensity of the convection at bay.
 
Add to that the very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.... that provides even more moisture and instability, and quicker.

Overall Instability isn't the issue. The issue is can the warm air aloft be overcome despite the very strong shear. Meager low level lapse rates with strong shear is a killer and you end up with a bunch of bumbling unorganized showers before the QLCS. If it can that is where the big uptick in risk rises.
 
Way that warm front comes in reminds of of that 2012 setup that produced a tornado in cabarrus county NC
 
Overall Instability isn't the issue. The issue is can the warm air aloft be overcome despite the very strong shear. Meager low level lapse rates with strong shear is a killer and you end up with a bunch of bumbling unorganized showers before the QLCS. If it can that is where the big uptick in risk rises.

Last night's WRF-ARW probably showed the closest thing to a worst case scenario.

It shows surface temps getting up to near 80*F as far north as the southern ATL Metro.

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