WXinCanton
Member
Yep don't sleep on the wind potential here. 70-90kt at 850 50-60kt at 925, its not going to take a lot of convection to force that downward. Even if we get lucky and somehow we don't see a number of supercells a well developed line of storms is going to have the potential for a widespread wind damage event.Very true . Hopefully things work in our favor with less instability and more junk convection. Even if that happens damaging wind will still be a big concern as this will be a very dynamic system
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I ve got some concerns with the clearing/thinning that keeps showing down near Selma-Montgomery.. Historiy time and again is that cells that in that area get real nasty quickly.. With flow they would get carried into GA along the "Us 29/GA 34 Tornado Alley"...Gut feeling says west of 65 is going to be the bullseye. I have a feeling East AL and GA will luck out with this system. Just a Gut feeling.
Add to that the very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.... that provides even more moisture and instability, and quicker.I ve got some concerns with the clearing/thinning that keeps showing down near Selma-Montgomery.. Historiy time and again is that cells that in that area get real nasty quickly.. With flow they would get carried into GA along the "Us 29/GA 34 Tornado Alley"...
I ve got some concerns with the clearing/thinning that keeps showing down near Selma-Montgomery.. Historiy time and again is that cells that in that area get real nasty quickly.. With flow they would get carried into GA along the "Us 29/GA 34 Tornado Alley"...
Add to that the very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.... that provides even more moisture and instability, and quicker.
Overall Instability isn't the issue. The issue is can the warm air aloft be overcome despite the very strong shear. Meager low level lapse rates with strong shear is a killer and you end up with a bunch of bumbling unorganized showers before the QLCS. If it can that is where the big uptick in risk rises.