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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

Do you guys think the SPC will go high risk (and expand the moderate risk to GA) in the upcoming day 2 outlook?
 
SouthATLwx said:
Maybe not so much South Georgia (too far removed from the better dynamics), but definitely Northwest and West-Central GA, including Southern and Western portions of Metro Atlanta.
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ill be on edge in Lithia springs in Douglas county.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
Do you think the enhanced area becomes moderate and the moderate becomes high?


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Can we please stop with the "Mod risk to high risk" or if "enhanced is going to mod?" It's littering the thread and until we get till tomorrow, really nothing more is going to change with the SPC.
 
ryan1234 said:
Can we please stop with the "Mod risk to high risk" or if "enhanced is going to mod." It's littering the thread and until we get till tomorrow, really nothing more is going to change with the SPC.
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Okay I’m sorry


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My gut tells me for western upstate sc and ne Georgia. This is your typical strong wind isolated tornado threat. Gusty winds very possible with one or two tornadoes embedded in that line. Of course you can’t rule out a discrete cell ahead of the line that could produce a tornado as well. But that’s the way I see it. Most places will be ok but hard to tell which one or two neighborhoods will not be ok.


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You would think that if the NWS said a historic outbreak is likely that would at least warrant a Moderate Risk in GA. An enhanced risk doesn't make sense if it's forecast to be historic.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
You would think that if the NWS said a historic outbreak is likely that would at least warrant a Moderate Risk in GA. An enhanced risk doesn't make sense if it's forecast to be historic.
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More of the issue here is that there will be severe weather across the Southeastern United States. To be honest, the "risk" labeling to me does not make me more or less focused on the weather. Its going to be there and its going to be impactful. At this time, listen to your local weather authority and the NWS in your area.
Be Alert. Be Responsive. Be Safe
 
Remember that junkVection the NAM 3km was showing yesterday associated with the moist plume aloft/off the deck convergence with lack of sfc convergence ? It’s now showing surface based supercells, and mind you the NAM most of the time is good at sniffing failed storm modes, not good 631B3AAC-9FD3-4647-9F16-EDE81FA2130F.jpeg
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
You would think that if the NWS said a historic outbreak is likely that would at least warrant a Moderate Risk in GA. An enhanced risk doesn't make sense if it's forecast to be historic.
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Where was the NWS Historic reference?


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Remember that junkVection the NAM 3km was showing yesterday associated with the moist plume aloft/off the deck convergence with lack of sfc convergence ? It’s now showing surface based supercells, and mind you the NAM most of the time is good at sniffing failed storm modes, not good View attachment 39003
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That looks nasty. Tomorrow has some wicked potential.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Remember that junkVection the NAM 3km was showing yesterday associated with the moist plume aloft/off the deck convergence with lack of sfc convergence ? It’s now showing surface based supercells, and mind you the NAM most of the time is good at sniffing failed storm modes, not good View attachment 39003
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What time is it in that nam pic you linked with the supercells popping?
 
ryan1234 said:
NWS ATL did. I think it's kinda premature, but that's my opinion. Not that they are wrong, given current modeling. But so much can and will change.
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Maybe given that it's a major holiday they want to make sure people aren't caught off guard. Then again everyone is at home now with nothing to do but watch tv.
 
i feel like that ATL NWS tweet about " environment comparable to the worst outbreaks in GA history" is a little over the top to be honest
 
Jrips2710 said:
Moderate extended to the GA/AL border View attachment 39002
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I'm sorry but keeping the Carolinas in the slight risk is a complete joke at this point. No meteorologist in their right mind that's actually looking at the type of environment that's being consistently forecasted over the Carolinas Sunday night into early Monday would conclude there's only a low/slight risk of straight line wind damage and tornadoes. I get the whole ordeal wrt their forecasts ending near 12z but, I think the SPC is really out to lunch on the overall threat level in the Carolinas.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm sorry but keeping the Carolinas in the slight risk is a complete joke at this point. No meteorologist in their right mind that's actually looking at the type of environment that's being consistently forecasted over the Carolinas Sunday night into early Monday would conclude there's only a low/slight risk of straight line wind damage and tornadoes. I get the whole ordeal wrt their forecasts ending near 12z but, I think the SPC is really out to lunch on the overall threat level in the Carolinas.
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I would probably say the Carolinas should be in the enhanced risk.


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Jessy89 said:
I would probably say the Carolinas should be in the enhanced risk.


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Even that is pretty conservative imo but I can understand given the timing issues yet to be resolved. In what world is an environment like this w/ 1000-1500 j/kg CAPE, 500 0-1 SRH, and 40-50 kts of 0-1 shear, with respectable low-level lapse rates and deep layer shear of 80-90 knots be worthy of only a slight risk of both wind & tornadoes?

The environment being consistently forecast on most NWP models is basically a high end &/or "historic" severe weather outbreak for the Carolinas, period. There's no way of cookie cutting that.

1586630016241.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm sorry but keeping the Carolinas in the slight risk is a complete joke at this point. No meteorologist in their right mind that's actually looking at the type of environment that's being consistently forecasted over the Carolinas Sunday night into early Monday would conclude there's only a low/slight risk of straight line wind damage and tornadoes. I get the whole ordeal wrt their forecasts ending near 12z but, I think the SPC is really out to lunch on the overall threat level in the Carolinas.
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I pulled this sounding from right at the time the storms are hitting my neck of the woods. Is the SRH levels really gonna be that high and does it matter if its linear and not discrete?
 

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