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4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

That Birmingham AFD was downright ominous. I can't recall a QLCS being worded in that fashion. They went out of there vfc way to stress the fact that this will not be a quick spin up tornado event. Not even with the squall line.
 
This system couldn't possibly come at a worse time for GA and points East. Nighttime tornadoes are incredibly dangerous. The soundings and STP values are off the charts for this area. This isn't good.
 
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ryan1234 said:
This system couldn't possibly come at a worse time for GA and points East. Nighttime tornadoes are incredibly dangerous. The soundings and STP values are off the charts for this area. This isn't good.
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And with this system seemingly trending worse the closer it gets, it makes me wonder just what might actually unfold. ?
 
cd2play said:
And with this system seemingly trending worse the closer it gets, it makes me wonder just what might actually unfold. ?
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Yeah, no way we don't see a high risk by tomorrow for the MS Valley. And I wouldn't be shocked to see the moderate risk expanded even farther east.
 
ryan1234 said:
This system couldn't possibly come at a worse time for GA and points East. Nighttime tornadoes are incredibly dangerous. The soundings and STP values are off the charts for this area. This isn't good.
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Well you do probably need to take these theoretical soundings with a grain of salt. A lot of forecasters avoid giving them too much weight, no? And I’d imagine we would be much worse off if this system came through during peak heating regardless.

Not that there won’t be any severe weather but the timing of it seems to be keeping the mets skeptical and I’d imagine there’s good reason for that. At least for now.
 
SEVERE STORMS EASTER SUNDAY: A potentially dangerous weather setup is ahead for the Deep South Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. A storm system with very strong wind fields will advance into the region, interacting with an unstable airmass. As the airmass heats and destabilizes during the afternoon, long-track supercells may evolve out of the morning convection to the west, and track northeastward into portions of Mississippi and Alabama, with a corresponding risk of strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Some upscale growth is possible with time, which would result in a corresponding widespread damaging wind risk, given extremely strong wind fields.

SPC has defined a “moderate risk” (level 4/5) for roughly the western half of the state, with an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) for the rest of the state.
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mbway091 said:
Well you do probably need to take these theoretical soundings with a grain of salt. A lot of forecasters avoid giving them too much weight, no? And I’d imagine we would be much worse off if this system came through during peak heating regardless.

Not that there won’t be any severe weather but the timing of it seems to be keeping the mets skeptical and I’d imagine there’s good reason for that. At least for now.
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Honestly, I'd normally agree with you, but the energy associated with this system is ridiculous. This may be a rare case where the timing may make very little difference.
 
ryan1234 said:
Honestly, I'd normally agree with you, but the energy associated with this system is ridiculous. This may be a rare case where the timing may make very little difference.
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Yeah I’m definitely not discounting it and I’d imagine most of SC and a good portion of NC will be under the gun into Monday morning. Personally I’m not planning on sleeping. Or if I do I’ll take my blanket to the bathroom, cross my fingers, and have a nap in the tub.
 
mbway091 said:
Yeah I’m definitely not discounting it and I’d imagine most of SC and a good portion of NC will be under the gun into Monday morning. Personally I’m not planning on sleeping. Or if I do I’ll take my blanket to the bathroom, cross my fingers, and have a nap in the tub.
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Same here. I have no basement, and all my bathrooms are on the exterior. At least you can take some beer or wine and make the most out it!
 
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