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Severe 3/30-4/2 Severe Weather

I noticed in the Memphis afternoon AFD they mentioned not much bowing in the 18Z HRRR. If you look at the line starting in northern AR and looking south, you can definitely tell the line is starting to bow on the 0Z.
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Mother of God, make it stop!

ec8d163bfecade89b82f598b6e7175aa.jpg



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SASQUATCH said:
Mother of God, make it stop!

ec8d163bfecade89b82f598b6e7175aa.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
THAT CELL IN T-TOWN AND THE ONES SOUTH OF IT HAVE ME CONCERNED AS FAR AS THE TORNADO THREAT GOES.

THAT ONE IN T-TOWN IF IT MOVES DUE EAST WILL GO RIGHT OVER MY ROOF AS IM ON THE SHELBY/BIBB LINE 7 MILES NW OF MONTEVALLO
 
Evening models trying harder to pull off that re generating line @SD still not quite there but certainly an interesting trend .. if the line can be a littttleeee slower that would be helpful for severe chances ramping up for us .. but these sort of QLCS lines usually move faster than modeled so we will see what happens
 
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO ALABAMA...AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected from the
Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys today, and over portions of the central Gulf Coast states
later today into tonight. Widespread damaging winds with gusts over
75 mph and several strong tornadoes (EF2+) appear likely.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough will exist over the central U.S. today,
with an intense leading wave moving across OK and TX through midday.
This feature will then take on a negative tilt as it moves across
the lower MS Valley and into the OH Valley after 00Z, providing
large-scale lift with rapid height falls. Midlevel wind speeds of
70+ kt will be common across the region, with a compact speed max to
100 kt possible with the ejecting wave. Just off the surface, 850 mb
flow will already average 60-70 kt at 12Z Wednesday from eastern TX
into AR and LA, and speeds will only increase with time, possibly as
high as 85 kt out of the south across TN and KY by 00Z.

As a surface low deepens over MO and IL during the day, low-level
moisture advection will occur quickly across the warm sector, with
upper 60s F dewpoints across LA, southern MS and AL, and mid 60s F
as far north as western TN. Two primary severe-weather regimes
appear evident today, one in association with the negative-tilt wave
as it ejects northeastward, and another farther south late in the
period ahead of the trailing cold front as it sweeps east along the
Gulf Coast.

...Eastern AR/northern LA northeastward into KY and TN...
Storms are likely to be ongoing near a cold front early in the day,
roughly from central MO into eastern OK, and near a developing
dryline pushing east of I-35 in TX. While instability will be
relatively weak at this juncture, shear will be extreme with large
looping hodographs. This may favor QLCS structures within any
ongoing lines of storms. By midday, the combination of cooling aloft
and strong low-level moisture advection will lead to destabilization
near the cold front, with a rapid increase in storm coverage and
intensity. Most CAMs suggest this will occur around 18Z, focused
over northern LA, central and eastern AR, and southeast MO. The bulk
of this activity is expected become severe as it quickly crosses the
MS River into MS, western TN and KY.

Extreme shear is forecast, with effective SRH of 500-800 m2/s2
common as MLCAPE increases to 1000-1500 J/kg over LA/AR/MS and
southwest TN. Supercells are likely, with strong tornadoes possible
as well as particularly damaging outflow surges. As outflows merge,
QLCS tornadoes may occur as well. Although CAPE values will be lower
across the OH Valley, strong lift may sustain a severe-wind threat
there through about 03Z.

...Parts of eastern LA...much of MS...AL...FL Panhandle...
Southern portions of the front/dryline will move much slower
compared to farther north, resulting in a longer duration of
boundary-layer moistening. A line of convection should become
evident by 21Z from southwest MS into parts of southern LA, moving
across MS and into north-central AL by about 03Z. The subtle lift,
combined with ample low-level moisture beneath an intense low-level
jet, will favor tornadic supercells which may peak during the night.
Effective SRH will remain high, averaging 400-500 m2/s2, with proper
hodograph elongation in the mid and high levels. Given the long
duration and slow eastward movement of this line of supercells, and
the magnitude of the forecast hodographs, a few intense tornadoes
could occur. However, the threat will become limited late in the
period due to decreasing instability to the east of about longitude
86W.

..Jewell/Bentley.. 03/30/2022
 
So 50-60 wind gust before the storm and 70+ during the storm?
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
356 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0349 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/

Today and Tonight.

* Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across Central Alabama
later this afternoon and into tonight. Damaging straight-line wind
gusts of 60-80 mph are possible. Strongest storms could also
produce tornadoes and hail up to quarter size.

* Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 40-50 mph are possible during the
afternoon and evening ahead of the thunderstorm complex. This
could lead to trees falling and resultant property damage, as
well as power outages. Locally higher gusts are possible, mainly
in northwest Central Alabama. These areas have been upgraded to
a High Wind Warning as trees falling and power outages are more
likely than in the "typical" wind advisory situations.

* 1-2" of total rainfall with locally higher amounts is expected
across Central Alabama. This could lead to isolated flash
flooding, particularly in low-lying or poor drainage areas, as
well as in urban areas.

A storm system and parent upper-level trough extends across much of
the Plains as of 3 AM CDT. This trough includes at least three
embedded perturbations per water vapor imagery and mesoanalysis. The
disturbance we`ll be interested in is currently the farthest
southwest and will eject across TX making its way toward the lower
Mississippi Valley by this afternoon. An ongoing, elongated area of
thunderstorms will advance east ahead of this disturbance aloft.

By this afternoon, the MCS will near the Mississippi River,
generally gaining intensity with the influence of increasing
instability owing to diurnal heating and moisture advection in the
progged, yet narrow, warm sector. Through this time, forcing &
dynamics aloft will strengthen as the shortwave begins to take on a
more negative tilt to our northwest. The MCS/QLCS will intensify
along with the attendant low-level jet. Most operational guidance
suggests a very robust LLJ with 850 mb winds 60-75+ kts. Winds at
~2k ft (925 mb) will be in the 45-55 kt range. This amount of wind
energy/kinematics will be the primary reason for the expectation of
severe weather threats later this afternoon and into tonight, as
well as strong gradient winds out ahead.

The intense line of thunderstorms will likely feature bowing
segments capable of 60-80 mph wind gusts given expected wind energy
aloft. Embedded circulations/supercells will also pose a tornado
threat, especially in areas of favorable 0-3 km shear vector
crossover. This system will approach the MS/AL state line as early
at 5 PM and quickly advance east, especially along the northern
portion of the line. In fact, this portion could eventually outrun
the narrow segment of surface-based CAPE at some point, perhaps
limiting the severe threat for our northeast counties. Farther
southwest and south, latest guidance/HREF suggests SBCAPE 250-500
J/kg well into the evening hours. More robust line-embedded
thunderstorms could manifest and maintain in these areas, and it is
here where the higher tornado threat should be. Severe weather
potential is expected to continue southeast, but exit Central
Alabama counties by 6 AM Thursday morning.
 
Seems like the spin up tornado threat is pretty darn high this afternoon
 
SimeonNC said:
With the SPC wording for tornadoes, I'm surprised there isn't an upgrade to a high risk.
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Not high enough to warrant a high risk, you'd have to have A 45% hatched tornado risk to warrant it. You could see a high wind risk though. But not out of the question for a 30% hatched tornado risk. Even so the large 15% is pretty impressive.
 
Mississippi and NW Alabama covered with high wind warnings. I don’t recall ever seeing that for our area at least outside of a tropical system. I wonder what the likelihood of the moderate risk expanding today is.
 
Zander98al said:
Not high enough to warrant a high risk, you'd have to have A 45% hatched tornado risk to warrant it. You could see a high wind risk though. But not out of the question for a 30% hatched tornado risk. Even so the large 15% is pretty impressive.
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Think 30 percent hatched tornado risk warrants a high risk category 30 percent plus is the threshold
 
@BufordWX
That Mesocyclone cleared me by less than 1 Mile, I was woken up at 11:38 PM last night to this Tornado Warned storm.
(Someone told me on a different forum that it was likely a Radar-Indicated Funnel Cloud)

My Grandmother thought that this was "Just another storm with a LOT of Lightning & Thunder, until the winds started to pick up & it was really strange".
 
Dunkman said:
Waking up to tornado warnings is usually a feature of the bad severe days in the south.
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Yup, just wait till conditions ripen and you move into Mississippi and Alabama. You'll probably have tornado warning left and right with spin ups if the NWS can even catch them in time.
 
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