Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

[GaWx]

The 12Z Euro has a TD/TS (as strong as 1004-5 mb) off FL that then moves N and landfalls between Charleston and Georgetown on 8/6.

 

[SD]

This thing at some point is going to need clouds or these model reports are useless

 

[Brent]

Strong wording from the NHC

Interests in the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should
monitor the progress of this system.

 

[Arcc]

This thing at some point is going to need clouds or these model reports are useless

Oh it will get clouds and then convection and then a post by JB will kill it dead for good.

 

[lexxnchloe]

The 12Z Euro has a TD/TS (as strong as 1004-5 mb) off FL that then moves N and landfalls between Charleston and Georgetown on 8/6.

 

[GaWx]

The 12Z EPS is still active and is fairly similar to the 0Z/6Z with some hitting the E coast but more staying just offshore and way less activity in the Gulf vs the Atlantic.

 

[Shaggy]

This thing at some point is going to need clouds or these model reports are useless

This cyclonic envelop is massive. Should take a lot of work to get anything consolidated

 

[lexxnchloe]

That it drops to 1005 mb over land suggests it finally finds a favorable area as it gets away from the MDR. If it were to stall and loop just offshore it might be an alex 2004

 

[Henry2326]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next day or two. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form late this week while the system is in the
vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

 

[BHS1975]

Euro very Florence like.


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[lexxnchloe]

Its easy to see what the problem is. Above normal moisture in the MDR just hasnt verified.

 

[Henry2326]

Ensemble continues to spread out.

 

[Henry2326]

Bubble leaning more to the east side....



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next day or two. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form late this week while the system is in the
vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

 

[lizajane]

Euro very Florence like.


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Only if it becomes a cat 4 before land fall. I live in Wilmington. Grew up here. I'm not a meteorologist. But the remnants of Cat 4s that come through are more powerful than a developing storm. Hurricane Matthew comes to mind and Florence.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

The old rule of thumb is if the system hasn’t formed yet with a center then modeling is biased too far east. If that’s the case we making be looking at OBX landfall or a scrape up the east coast for all states or Canada strike again. The signal is there for development and that’s all we can really go on. Intensity and track won’t be known. I.E the cat 5 we already had this year. The NHC has been doing a good job on cyclone genesis and that’s really the first step to help these models run.

 

[Downeastnc]

Only if it becomes a cat 4 before land fall. I live in Wilmington. Grew up here. I'm not a meteorologist. But the remnants of Cat 4s that come through are more powerful than a developing storm. Hurricane Matthew comes to mind and Florence.

I agree, Irene was a beast of a storm even though she was much weaker than her former glory because she had a large well developed wind field and smack us around for hours with the center a good 75-100 miles east of us.....seems like the local home grown storms tend to stay on the smaller size with tighter cores....storms like Alex and Arthur....the center of Arthur was as close as Irene and officially 100 mph versus Irene's 85 and we got no wind from Arthur because he did not have the well established wind field she did.

 

[lexxnchloe]

ICON a bit stronger and east






On and off GFS back on again

 

[accu35]

Gfs headed to TX?

 

[lexxnchloe]

Gfs headed to TX?

Gfs headed to TX?

Down to 976






Landfall. Looks like it gets down to 973 just before landfall

 

[GaWx]

For C MDR system:

1. 0Z CMC forms TC off SE coast, center stays a little offshore SC/NC, and then becomes a H well offshore; ends run just off NE Nova Scotia as significant storm

2. 0Z UKMET: large shift SW from 12Z run and much earlier TCG just N of C Cuba with TS near Key West then turns into FL Big Bend followed by NNE motion into SC/SE GA, NE into coastal SC and then ENE move to offshore CHS; TS nearly the entire track

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 22.8N 79.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2024 108 23.3N 79.9W 1007 37
0000UTC 04.08.2024 120 24.8N 81.8W 1004 39
1200UTC 04.08.2024 132 26.9N 83.2W 1003 37
0000UTC 05.08.2024 144 28.9N 83.0W 1003 33
1200UTC 05.08.2024 156 31.4N 82.5W 1008 36
0000UTC 06.08.2024 168 32.8N 79.4W 1006 35