Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

[lexxnchloe]

I guess i am the only one saying this but i still think the reason waves are having such a hard time developing is because pressures are too low north of the ITCZ and CV Islands. They come off, stretch out, then vanish. Need higher pressures north of the CV Islands and lower pressure south

 

[lexxnchloe]

Here is a good example. A wave is coming out way too far north and it just going to dissipate in the general area of low pressure north of the CV Islands

 

[lexxnchloe]

Here is another example. The 1012 low just east of the islands is what will be ernesto. The other 1012 low is a wave coming off the coast that isnt going to develop. Its just going to stretch out and disappear in the general area of low pressure to its north.

 

[GaWx]

Here is another example. The 1012 low just east of the islands is what will be ernesto. The other 1012 low is a wave coming off the coast that isnt going to develop. Its just going to stretch out and disappear in the general area of low pressure to its north.

View attachment 149915

2024 has been uncommonly active so far. As of 8/8, it had the 5th highest ACE since 1851! And now here comes Ernesto, which could very well be a big ACE producer and should keep 2024 high in the ACE standings.

 

[$alt]

2024 has been uncommonly active so far. As of 8/8, it had the 5th highest ACE since 1851! And now here comes Ernesto, which could very well be a big ACE producer and should keep 2024 high in the ACE standings.

I am a firm believer that we will be seeing storm chances into at least mid October if not later this year. (this doesn't mean I don't think a lot will get swept away by fronts though).

 

[lexxnchloe]

2024 has been uncommonly active so far. As of 8/8, it had the 5th highest ACE since 1851! And now here comes Ernesto, which could very well be a big ACE producer and should keep 2024 high in the ACE standings.

I found this from Danny Morris talking about how the MT needs to shift south and its currently configured wrong

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[lexxnchloe]

The switch is supposed to flip Aug 20 and now thru Aug 28 nothing other than Ernie. Maybe a 1998 type season

 

[Belle Lechat]

The switch is supposed to flip Aug 20 and now thru Aug 28 nothing other than Ernie. Maybe a 1998 type season

 

[ForsythSnow]

The switch is supposed to flip Aug 20 and now thru Aug 28 nothing other than Ernie. Maybe a 1998 type season

We'd have to flip fast and stay hyperactive all the way until late October to reach the numbers put out. About 20 storms extra so we'd need a storm every 3 to 6 days to reach that. Not sure if that's remotely possible.

 

[GaWx]

The switch is supposed to flip Aug 20 andnow thru Aug 28 nothing other than Ernie. Maybe a 1998 type season

I hope it is right and people get the break from worry for a change. But unfortunately, I don’t think it will. So, that’s not wishcasting and obviously not based on the currently quiet models post Ernesto. Debbie and Ernesto weren’t first seen consistently all that far out on model consensus. And now with Ernesto ACE is liable to go much higher over the next 7 days. Plus the US has already had a rare for so early 2 H hits. Now in terms of numbers of H and especially NS, we’re probably headed toward a somewhat lower number than the most active seasons forecasted. I forecasted 21 and 10 H, which still has a chance. Also, I’m currently thinking ~200 total ACE per very active early season analogs.
Edit: These same analogs unfortunately even suggest another H hit on the CONUS just in August, with it quite possibly a MH.

*Corrected my full season H prediction as I predicted 21/10/5 in May

 

[lexxnchloe]

We'd have to flip fast and stay hyperactive all the way until late October to reach the numbers put out. About 20 storms extra so we'd need a storm every 3 to 6 days to reach that. Not sure if that's remotely possible.

One thing thats going to keep numbers down is nothing is developing in the subtropics. No old stalled fronts, no upper lows sitting for a long time and developing.

 

[lexxnchloe]

I hope it is right and people get the break from worry for a change. But unfortunately, I don’t think it will. So, that’s not wishcasting and obviously not based on the currently quiet models post Ernesto. Debbie and Ernesto weren’t first seen consistently all that far out on model consensus. And now with Ernesto ACE is liable to go much higher over the next 7 days. Plus the US has already had a rare for so early 2 H hits. Now in terms of numbers of H and especially NS, we’re probably headed toward a somewhat lower number than the most active seasons forecasted. I forecasted 21 and 10 H, which still has a chance. Also, I’m currently thinking ~200 total ACE per very active early season analogs.
Edit: These same analogs unfortunately even suggest another H hit on the CONUS just in August, with it quite possibly a MH.

*Corrected my full season H prediction as I predicted 21/10/5 in May

Something is going to have to pop up fast on the models for a hurricane to hit the US in Aug. A tropical wave takes awhile to develop and no model sees that now.

 

[GaWx]

Something is going to have to pop up fast on the models for a hurricane to hit the US in Aug. A tropical wave takes awhile to develop and no model sees that now.

With nearly 3 weeks to go this month, that’s a near eternity (i.e., unpredictable) from models’ perspective, especially the last 10 or so days. They’re not that “smart”. So, we’ll see. Maybe I’ll be wrong.