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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

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1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic. Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the early to middle part of next week while the system
approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The
system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward
and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to
latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
 
HWFI has it as a cat4 and it's the furthest west track.
If that should happen, watch closely.
Stronger goes west.

98L_tracks_latest.png
98L_intensity_latest.png
 
lexxnchloe said:
The ATL doesnt seem to be able to put out more than 1 at a time with long intervals inbetween. Hyperactive to me is 3 storms at once with 1 directly effecting the US. The good news is this is a great pattern for a early autumn and cooler drier weather.

View attachment 149876
Click to expand...
Thst is a broad statement to make based on an operational model thst performs poorly at hour 378. Take it for what it is....a wild ass guess. Every once in awhile even a blind squirrel finds a nut.
 
1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in
association with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. A tropical
depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next
week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the
Lesser Antilles, and interests there should monitor the progress of
this system. Then, the system is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater
Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
 
Other 12Z:

ICON: TC PR on 8/14, recurves 69W, heading NE S of Berm at 180

CMC: misses Caribb, recurves 64W, no land hit

Euro: TS E PR, recurve 67W, just SE of Berm. as cat 2, goes SE of Canada

UK: recurve 69W; turns NW at 28N:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 20.8N 68.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2024 108 20.8N 68.7W 1009 32
1200UTC 15.08.2024 120 24.0N 68.7W 1008 40
0000UTC 16.08.2024 132 25.4N 68.4W 1005 48
1200UTC 16.08.2024 144 26.7N 67.5W 1003 44
0000UTC 17.08.2024 156 28.0N 67.2W 1001 44
1200UTC 17.08.2024 168 28.7N 67.9W 1001 41
 
The models are suggesting a shot at the highest daily SOIs in 2 yrs with +35+ possible in 7-10 days. This is largely due to strong HP S of Tahiti. The GFS suite is saying there could be a 1019+ mb peak there though others are ~1018.

There’s some lagging correlation between SOI and Atlantic activity/US landfalls. I fear that this in combo with the near record warm MDR and the very active early season leading indicator could mean a very active and dangerous late Aug and Sept. are on the way.
 
GaWx said:
The models are suggesting a shot at the highest daily SOIs in 2 yrs with +35+ possible in 7-10 days. This is largely due to strong HP S of Tahiti. The GFS suite is saying there could be a 1019+ mb peak there though others are ~1018.

There’s some lagging correlation between SOI and Atlantic activity/US landfalls. I fear that this in combo with the near record warm MDR and the very active early season leading indicator could mean a very active and dangerous late Aug and Sept. are on the way.
Click to expand...
Add the fact that the MJO is headed towards phases 2-3, and we could be setting up for multiple US hits.
 
lexxnchloe said:
The ATL doesnt seem to be able to put out more than 1 at a time with long intervals inbetween. Hyperactive to me is 3 storms at once with 1 directly effecting the US. The good news is this is a great pattern for a early autumn and cooler drier weather.

View attachment 149876
Click to expand...
Your take on a hyperactive season is very construed. As many have previously stated we are a ways from peak season and a lot can still and most likely will happen. It’s not 100% at any rate but your reasoning this early is asinine. No disrespect intended but maybe have some patience!
 
18z GFS with two US landfalls in Puerto Rico and Maine. We are currently at 100% of the named storms hitting land for the 2024 hurricane season. IMG_3384.jpeg
 
jeremyt said:
Your take on a hyperactive season is very construed. As many have previously stated we are a ways from peak season and a lot can still and most likely will happen. It’s not 100% at any rate but your reasoning this early is asinine. No disrespect intended but maybe have some patience!
Click to expand...

I mean I hope the season busts for a lot of reasons(trust me if this is as bad as it could be we're gonna have so many problems and we dont need them) but yeah things can flip overnight out there and a lot of times it's not til after the 20th and then we got about 6 weeks
 
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