Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

[lexxnchloe]

GFS 959mb scraping outer banks. For a storm that hasn’t formed yet and checked the other Herbert boxes, US certainly at risk of a major landfall including Florida/Gulf etc.

Yes, much further west

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Shawn]

the timing means a lot with this system. there's a real chance it gets picked up and crashes into the SE.

 

[Shaggy]

the timing means a lot with this system. there's a real chance it gets picked up and crashes into the SE.

View attachment 149789

Yeah Imagine there will be great jumps in the op runs as this gets picked up sometimes and gets close and sometimes it doesn't and recurves safely.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Yeah Imagine there will be great jumps in the op runs as this gets picked up sometimes and gets close and tines it doesn't and recurves safely.

The pattern behind it is ideal for landfalls, possibly FLA

 

[GaWx]

12Z ICON: recurve from SE Bahamas at 71-2W.

 

[BHS1975]

GFS with a LF now for NC.


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[GaWx]

12Z CMC: recurve E of Bermuda

12Z UKMET: forms NE of SE Bahamas moving N but shortly after turns NW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 23.1N 71.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2024 156 23.9N 71.7W 1007 37
1200UTC 16.08.2024 168 24.7N 72.5W 1005 36

 

[lexxnchloe]

12Z ICON: recurve from SE Bahamas at 71-2W.

UKMET and GFS are threats, cmc and icon not

 

[StoneColdHeel]

The AI Euro did a great job with Debby.

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS with a LF now for NC.


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[GaWx]

12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading in direction of SE Canada.

 

[lexxnchloe]

The AI Euro did a great job with Debby.

Will be interesting to see which camp the Euro goes in.

 

[lexxnchloe]

12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading direction of SE Canada.

Probably time to write this off in that case.

 

[GaWx]

Probably time to write this off in that case.

Believe me I’d love to be able to write it off and get a much needed break, but unfortunately it is too far out and so one op run even from the King is hardly reliable. Ensembles have much more credibility this far out.

 

[mrdaddyman]

Looks like the Euro has it following the weakness left by the weak LP that forms over the SE and moves out to sea. Guess the track will partially depend on whether this LP actually forms and, if so, the timing of it. UKMET also shows the same LP forming.

 

[snowc]

Welp, Here we go again?! Another storm going to impact us?!

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Welp, Here we go again?! Another storm going to impact us?!

Doubtful. It’s always more likely for nothing to happen. I think we will see many storms form but no impact here again until October.

 

[lexxnchloe]

There are differences in 12z today and 0z last night. Today the set up is better for the storm to get closer.

last night




Today