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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

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12Z EPS: more spread out than 0Z but with mean path a little to the left of 0Z. The operational was fairly close to the EPS mean path. There’s still very little in the Gulf, a few at or near SE FL, some that hit further up the US E coast, and the majority still staying offshore the E US. A decent % of those, however, later hit SE Canada. Still a long way to go and lots of uncertainty this far out.
 
Just looking at this with the trof well to the west and a strong high to the east Long Island should watch out. Lets see what happens


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GaWx said:
12Z EPS: more spread out than 0Z but with mean path a little to the left of 0Z. The operational was fairly close to the EPS mean path. There’s still very little in the Gulf, a few at or near SE FL, some that hit further up the US E coast, and the majority still staying offshore the E US. A decent % of those, however, later hit SE Canada. Still a long way to go and lots of uncertainty this far out.
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18z gfs is slightly spread out Screenshot_20240809_194909_Chrome.jpg
 
Brent said:
Invest 98L now
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1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 900
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become a little
better organized since yesterday. Slow development of this system
is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward
to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over
the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving
generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the
Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
 
Do the models have a better hold on this than Debby? I remember those keeping off of the EC and it ended up in the gulf. I’m not saying it will be an EC storm or even wanting that but it still hasn’t formed.
 
jeremyt said:
Do the models have a better hold on this than Debby? I remember those keeping off of the EC and it ended up in the gulf. I’m not saying it will be an EC storm or even wanting that but it still hasn’t formed.
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Right now its too early to say no threat to the east coast. I cant imagine it getting in the GOM.
 
Going over the islands if that happens doesn't really scream recurve to me but we'll see... still gonna be a high chance of it that far east. Very few storms make it across
 
jrips27 said:
Once there was a center they pretty much nailed it. Before a center formed though it was favored to go east of Florida and up the coast. This is from 7/30View attachment 149830
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Yeah true just have to wait and see here but like I said the odds alone will favor a recurve. Gonna need to stay south and weaker probably to make it across
 
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