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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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Nothing on the GFS. ICON was weaker/


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lexxnchloe said:
Maybe but its never a good sign when the models start to drop a storm.
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From what I see, the models haven't dropped. More concerning, is the models are showing a weakness that puts the low closer to EC where it can explode.

Too far for models to really pick up on intensity....just looking for placement possibility.

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Henry2326 said:
From what I see, the models haven't dropped. More concerning, is the models are showing a weakness that puts the low closer to EC where it can explode.

Too far for models to really pick up on intensity....just looking for placement possibility.

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We will see but thats a ghost of what the GFS was showing. Too bad too because the big high to the north would have a strong cane roaring up the east coast.
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Brent said:
I'm not saying anything is guaranteed to form but the same GFS said there would be no Idalia for days too... So it's already failed with the biggest storm of the year so far
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The euro still has it though not a threat. I hope it was another burp on the GFS.
 
Totally gone on the GFS. Unless it makes a comeback tonight on the GFS this was a model mess-up across the board.
 
Downeastnc said:
While it seems highly likely this is our next hurricane, it also seems likely its a threat to the NE islands and Bermuda and that getting to the US would be difficult given the progressive pattern.

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The GFS is a trought storm.
 
Rain Cold said:
I would too. Bermuda should pay attention.
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As should NC. Its moving due north as it passes Hatteras. In the earlier runs when the gfs had a strong cane it had already turned NE by Hatteras. Also, its a considerable improvement over this a few days ago

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Also this is not all that bad of a pattern. Big high over NW ATL and a trof to our west. Minor changes and a cane is coming right over the coast.

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lexxnchloe said:
Also this is not all that bad of a pattern. Big high over NW ATL and a trof to our west. Minor changes and a cane is coming right over the coast.

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The surface high over the NW ATL isn’t doing anything to change the direction of the hurricane. The game is over way back around 240hrs when the TC rounds the west side of the subtropical ridge. You would need to get that ridge to actually build to the north of the hurricane and the broad trough to slow down or abnormally dig south, strengthen and cut off. It’s possible, but considering it isn’t supported by any model rather unlikely.

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Arcc said:
The surface high over the NW ATL isn’t doing anything to change the direction of the hurricane. The game is over way back around 240hrs when the TC rounds the west side of the subtropical ridge. You would need to get that ridge to actually build to the north of the hurricane and the broad trough to slow down or abnormally dig south, strengthen and cut off. It’s possible, but considering it isn’t supported by any model rather unlikely.

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Yup and Florence showed that anything can happen in those ranges and as always we sit and watch
 
A few minor changes and the GFS just got alot more interesting

240

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264

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Yes, it recurves but as i suspected the pattern wasnt all that bad and it moves alot more NW
 
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