Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

[SD]

Probably going to have a system or 2 over the next 10 days

 

[Shaggy]

Probably going to have a system or 2 over the next 10 days

gefs seems like it wants tonspit out a name burner

 

[Tornadocane]

System over the Bahamas looks a lot more vigorous than yesterday. Bahama Radar shows intense thunderstorms over the big island, and some weak circulation. Bahama Radar: https://radars.bahamasweather.org.bshttps//radars.bahamasweather.org.bs/

Shear looks to have completely subsided. Should produce a significant rainfall for SW Florida over the weekend.

 

[Brent]

Meanwhile in the Pacific Dora is officially a typhoon after being in the Atlantic as an invest and a hurricane across the entire Pacific

 

[Downeastnc]

Meanwhile in the Pacific Dora is officially a typhoon after being in the Atlantic as an invest and a hurricane across the entire Pacific View attachment 136165

 

[BHS1975]

Models are starting to pop.


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[NoSnowATL]

Models are starting to pop.


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1 out of every 10 runs look good.

 

[NoSnowATL]

?

 

[Brent]

3 areas in the Pacific even after Dora crossed over... I don't expect much in the Atlantic til/unless it slows down over there

 

[weather bubba]

I just saw where NOAA finished the computer upgrade they had been promising for a while now and the computing capacity with their new supercomputer has increased by around twenty percent over the previous unit. It will be interesting to see if the GFS forecast model improves with the new system NOAA has in place. If so, long range tropical and winter weather forecasts may not be as off base as before.

 

[Shawn]

I just saw where NOAA finished the computer upgrade they had been promising for a while now and the computing capacity with their new supercomputer has increased by around twenty percent over the previous unit. It will be interesting to see if the GFS forecast model improves with the new system NOAA has in place. If so, long range tropical and winter weather forecasts may not be as off base as before.

AI models will be taking over in the next 5 years or so

 

[BHS1975]

AI will be taking over in the next 5 years or so

Fixed lol.


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[Shaggy]

It's 300+ on the ensembles but it shows some homegrown mischief

 

[NoSnowATL]

It's 300+ on the ensembles but it shows some homegrown mischief

Winter storm?

 

[Henry2326]

It's 300+ on the ensembles but it shows some homegrown mischief

More than mischief on 00z and 06z.

 

[Shaggy]

So far the 06z ensemble is less concentrated in the gom and more spread out than the 0z. It's still a 300+ hour signal anyways

 

[NoSnowATL]

Have it under 120hrs and I’ll listen.

 

[severestorm]

Whatever storm gets in the gulf, it's going to ramp up FAST

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Whatever storm gets in the gulf, it's going to ramp up FAST

I wonder whats causing the Gulf to be so warm ?

 

[Avalanche]

I wonder whats causing the Gulf to be so warm ?

Lack of any tropical development there??