Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

[lexxnchloe]

ICON a little stronger and a little more SW

 

[lexxnchloe]

Though weak, it has returned on the GFS

 

[lexxnchloe]

It gets stuck north of PR on Euro. 29MB stronger

 

[Downeastnc]

While it seems highly likely this is our next hurricane, it also seems likely its a threat to the NE islands and Bermuda and that getting to the US would be difficult given the progressive pattern.

 

[Rain Cold]

While it seems highly likely this is our next hurricane, it also seems likely its a threat to the NE islands and Bermuda and that getting to the US would be difficult given the progressive pattern.

The GFS is a trought storm.

 

[lexxnchloe]

The GFS is a trought storm.

I would still consider that a threat.

 

[Rain Cold]

I would still consider that a threat.

I would too. Bermuda should pay attention.

 

[lexxnchloe]

I would too. Bermuda should pay attention.

As should NC. Its moving due north as it passes Hatteras. In the earlier runs when the gfs had a strong cane it had already turned NE by Hatteras. Also, its a considerable improvement over this a few days ago

 

[lexxnchloe]

Also this is not all that bad of a pattern. Big high over NW ATL and a trof to our west. Minor changes and a cane is coming right over the coast.

 

[Arcc]

Also this is not all that bad of a pattern. Big high over NW ATL and a trof to our west. Minor changes and a cane is coming right over the coast.

The surface high over the NW ATL isn’t doing anything to change the direction of the hurricane. The game is over way back around 240hrs when the TC rounds the west side of the subtropical ridge. You would need to get that ridge to actually build to the north of the hurricane and the broad trough to slow down or abnormally dig south, strengthen and cut off. It’s possible, but considering it isn’t supported by any model rather unlikely.

 

[Shaggy]

The surface high over the NW ATL isn’t doing anything to change the direction of the hurricane. The game is over way back around 240hrs when the TC rounds the west side of the subtropical ridge. You would need to get that ridge to actually build to the north of the hurricane and the broad trough to slow down or abnormally dig south, strengthen and cut off. It’s possible, but considering it isn’t supported by any model rather unlikely.

View attachment 136771

Yup and Florence showed that anything can happen in those ranges and as always we sit and watch

 

[lexxnchloe]

A few minor changes and the GFS just got alot more interesting

240

264

Yes, it recurves but as i suspected the pattern wasnt all that bad and it moves alot more NW

 

[lexxnchloe]

Yup and Florence showed that anything can happen in those ranges and as always we sit and watch

GFS got alot more interesting

 

[Shaggy]

GFS got alot more interesting

Not nearly as interesting as it's ensemble

 

[BHS1975]

Nah. You need a lot more ridging over New England to keep it going west.


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[Shaggy]

Nah. You need a lot more ridging over New England to keep it going west.


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Yeah the ensembles get it deeper into the Caribbean and the Bahamas but the ridge still breaks down a bit too soon. Still a long way to go

 

[NoSnowATL]

OTS

 

[lexxnchloe]

This wouldnt be a recurve on the ICON but now it barely develops it.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Euro weaker but more SW at 198

 

[lexxnchloe]

at 228 its sw of 0Z. looks like a recurve but small steps west