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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

Followup to what I posted 45 minutes ago: 12Z GFS end of run, just for the record, is a slightly earlier version of the early Oct 1898 landfall on the FL/GA border. But this map has virtually no value obviously:

gfsop_12_h500_gc_h_0372.png
 
BHS1975 said:
If the euro jumps in where in trouble.


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Even if it doesn’t jump in on a specific system yet, the pattern and amount of activity is certainly indicative of the growing possibility of a threat to the southeast coast in the 9/21-9/25 timeframe.
 
Chazwin said:
Even if it doesn’t jump in on a specific system yet, the pattern and amount of activity is certainly indicative of the growing possibility of a threat to the southeast coast in the 9/21-9/25 timeframe.
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Yeah anything in that day 7-10 range will be hard to resolve right now given how chaotic things are with weak tropical waves, upper level energy, old fronts, ridge amplitude changing from run to run
 
SD said:
Yeah anything in that day 7-10 range will be hard to resolve right now given how chaotic things are with weak tropical waves, upper level energy, old fronts, ridge amplitude changing from run to run
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They locked in on Ida way in advance.


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BHS1975 said:
They locked in on Ida way in advance.


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I looked back on this thread. We started posting GFS for Ida on August 17, which is 13 days before landfall.

13 days from today is 9/21, so in the range if it doesn't sit and spin over Bahamas for 3 days as is demonstrated on the 12z version.
 
Get some minor Diana vibes off the gfs. A slow moving bombing homegrown cane. Of course it's so far out who knows
 
Shaggy said:
Get some minor Diana vibes off the gfs. A slow moving bombing homegrown cane. Of course it's so far out who knows
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Yeah… also with the way it stalled that system out east of Florida for a couple days, shows what is certainly one of the possibilities with an overall pattern like the models show. The ridge off the NE coast blocks any path for the storm to go out to sea, but the steering weakens. If that happens like what happened with Diana or even with Florence with the very slow movement near the coast or even over land… you get a massive flooding event.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah… also with the way it stalled that system out east of Florida for a couple days, shows what is certainly one of the possibilities with an overall pattern like the models show. The ridge off the NE coast blocks any path for the storm to go out to sea, but the steering weakens. If that happens like what happened with Diana or even with Florence with the very slow movement near the coast or even over land… you get a massive flooding event.
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Looks like the first models of Dorian to me.
 
Brent said:
What a wave
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This massive size of it may be why the GFS every single run has handled it so differently from the Euro/UKMET/ICON. The GFS every time has seemingly been focusing on the southern part of it and keeping it very weak and moving WSW early vs those other 3 focusing on the northern part and having it become well organized quickly and moving WNW to NW right away.
 
ICON has a weak feature next Thur/Fri track would be interesting if it were to actually be something.,.....

icon_mslp_pcpn_seus_fh150-168.gif
 
GFS/Euro showing another Mindy like setup along the Texas coast early next week

The euro apparently shows a big flooding event for Houstonecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.pnggfs_z500_mslp_watl_17.png

The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea,
and portions of the Yucatan peninsula. This system is forecast to
move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface
trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form Sunday or
Monday before the system moves onshore along the western Gulf of
Mexico coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
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GaWx said:
This massive size of it may be why the GFS every single run has handled it so differently from the Euro/UKMET/ICON. The GFS every time has seemingly been focusing on the southern part of it and keeping it very weak and moving WSW early vs those other 3 focusing on the northern part and having it become well organized quickly and moving WNW to NW right away.
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I remember back when Hurricane Floyd came off Africa. Thing was massive in size. This reminds me of that. Hopefully not same fate.
 
Regarding the AEW just now moving off Africa, interestingly, the 6Z Euro was about its weakest run yet along with a slightly more SW track, suggesting it is moving toward the GFS idea of it staying weak and not recurving so sharply. Remember when the Euro was coming off Africa way up at 20N? Also, the GFS has in recent runs been trending toward a slightly higher latitude track and a little earlier recurvature of a still weak but perhaps slightly stronger low than the numerous runs bringing it across very weak to the Lesser Antilles near or south of 15N before moving WNW. So, the Euro and GFS are finally starting to come together a little better as each moves closer to the other’s solution. The consensus now seems to be for a mainly weak low that recurves east of the Lesser Antilles and never threatens land after the CVs with it not being strong near the CVs. But all of that still remains to be seen, of course.

There is now within the big wave a tight ball of convection with probably a LLC of sorts just offshore near 14N, 18W moving seemingly WSW per the visible loops. Let’s see whether or not this area ends up being the focus of this AEW and, if so, whether or not it develops further

70BD98D0-A242-4995-B6E0-47ABC1F5AF55.jpeg

Edit:The Euro suite doesn’t develop this and instead delays development til late tonight in the same area moving WNW. Perhaps that is why there has been such disagreement between the GFS and Euro.

Here’s an IR pic showing that tight ball of convection:

3F1182DD-2FEA-412B-A93D-E313B9B30D7B.jpeg
 
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Icon wants to develop a weak wave before this that moves into the SE and then develops this guy right after … next week looking interesting 4F3CAE02-A48F-41F0-A484-558838D011E8.png
 
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