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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

GaWx said:
The 6Z GFS/GEFS and EPS are continuing the idea that the AEW moving offshore Africa 9/10 (GFS) or 9/11 (Euro) (is the same AEW) may very well eventually be something to contend with. The 6Z GFS is the 4th run in a row that gets it near FL ~9/20. Also, this run suggests there may be another active wave a few days behind it. Also, note the strong E US ridge being suggested for around that period.
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12z Icon gives a fairly good presentation of the waves moving west.

Screenshot_2021-09-06-12-11-48.png
 
We’ll round two of tropical activity certainly has proven itself and we weren’t able to be spared … 1 major hurricane landfall unfortunately .. and an absolute beast and beauty ace maker that hopefully remains a fish storm .. along with a couple little flippers .. now we wait for a possible third round of potential AEW Action
 
Henry2326 said:
12z Icon gives a fairly good presentation of the waves moving west.

View attachment 90288
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Also, the 12Z UKMET finally has it as it just moved to within its 144 hour range. This track, too, would mean a likely early recurve but note that this has it a TS right off Africa and a near H within 24 hours, both of which could be too strong:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.6N 15.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2021 120 15.6N 15.7W 998 39
0000UTC 12.09.2021 132 17.3N 18.7W 992 50
1200UTC 12.09.2021 144 18.9N 20.6W 983 57
 
12Z GFS is the 5th run in a row taking this same 9/10-11 emerging AEW into the Caribbean ~9/18 as a result of it staying weak. This wave is what is causing the convection at the Lesser Antilles on the far right in this image:

hMjClcS.png
 
Now the 12Z CMC has it at 17N, 44W at hour 240 moving almost due west:

D7FAB3B1-E872-46B0-AD58-4422D18A64CD.png
 
Just like the prior run, the 12Z Euro has a sharp far E Atlantic recurve of this wave though not as early as the 0Z, which went quickly back into Africa.

This is still evolving as the Euro had it come off Africa way up at 20N a few days ago. Now it is down to 16N and that's still 5 days out. So, far from set in stone yet. It may still recurve sharply, but if it stays weak near Africa, it likely wouldn't sharply recurve.
 
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And for the first time now we have a substantial split with this wave on the 12Z EPS, the sharp recurvers and those left behind moving mainly westward just past 30W, which means lots of uncertainty/this is still evolving:

ecmen_12_mslps_ta_h_0198.png
 
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I thought we would have more majors making landfall in the US based on the NHC predictions for this year. Ida was enough, though.
 
Let's not forget the last few years have been backloaded in late September and October. Matthew? Michael? Sally? Delta? Zeta? The season is not over by a long shot

Maybe we get lucky and Ida was it but I'd be very surprised. The EPAC has died off there's no sign of an El nino to shut down the season so I see no reason the Atlantic won't pick up again sooner or later
 
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Yeah with that ridging if something can get further west it's gonna have to be watched

And we just saw Grace and Ida blow up close to land
 
Anyone paying attention to the cat 4/5 micro cane in the WPAC that's suppose to maintain that intensity for the next 4 days
 
00ZGFS had a weird little looper storm it forms well off Hatteras and loop back into southern SC as a TS.....really just crazy long range GFS stuff
 
Downeastnc said:
Euro ens starting to show some deep tropic love.....

View attachment 90374
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I'm still trying to figure out the vort energy off of the SE coast on the Euro
ecmwf_uv850_vort_us_11.png

Look like it's a combo of one of the 2 systems off of Africa now and the remnant front from the weekend. Gotta keep an eye on this and anything else motoring across the Atlantic the next 2 weeks the door is wide open
 
SD said:
I'm still trying to figure out the vort energy off of the SE coast on the Euro


Look like it's a combo of one of the 2 systems off of Africa now and the remnant front from the weekend. Gotta keep an eye on this and anything else motoring across the Atlantic the next 2 weeks the door is wide open
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Yeah models are a mess with vorts all over really, lots of bagginess over the SW ATL could easily see them firm up on a more legit threat to the SE later in the period....
 
So the super typhoon in the WPAC is a true microcane. Hurricane force winds extend out to 15 miles and TS only out to 70. I find it hard to believe a cleared out 5 mile wide pinhole is only a 140kt cane.
 
SD said:
I'm still trying to figure out the vort energy off of the SE coast on the Euro
View attachment 90377

Look like it's a combo of one of the 2 systems off of Africa now and the remnant front from the weekend. Gotta keep an eye on this and anything else motoring across the Atlantic the next 2 weeks the door is wide open
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Looks like 12z CMC and 06z GFS had some indicators too.



Screenshot_2021-09-08-15-59-26.png

Screenshot_1631131231886.png
 
Watching the GOM again next week as the Caribbean disturbance plays around in western gulf.
 
8PM:

A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the western
coast of Africa in a few days. Additional development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
by early next week as it moves west-northwestward over the far
eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

This is for that AEW emerging from Africa on 9/10-11 that has been discussed for over a week. Whereas a sharp recurve in the E Atlantic is favored, that is far from set in stone as every GFS run since the 12Z of Sunday has kept it weak with a WSW initial move off Africa followed by a W move at or south of 15N moving at least to 60W.
 
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Brick Tamland said:
Looks like we might be lucky and only have one major make landfall this year.
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It’s way too early to say that. I hope it’s true, but we know we’ve seen a lot of major Hurricanes making landfall late in September to deep into October the last few years. With H5 looks the models are putting out for the next couple weeks, anything forming could turn into a threat pretty quickly
 
This look could be problematic for the SE if it were real but this is still way out at hour 210:

gfsop_12_h500_gc_h_0210.png

Edit: This is not the wave that is in the TWO that is about to leave Africa. That is recurving much further out in the ocean as a wave as of this time.
 
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