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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

two_atl_5d0.pngA tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
late Thursday. This system has the potential for slow development
over the far eastern Atlantic through the weekend while it moves
westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
It is still way out in cartoon-land and thus not a concern for now, but the 12Z Euro ens mean H5 pattern and actual modeled member TCs suggest there could be a threat to the FL-NC area 8/13-20. There are actually 7 landfalls or impending landfalls at the end of the run (6 SE coast, 1 Gulf coast, However, that's out of 51 members. So, only ~1 in 7 members hits the US.

Hour 276:
ecmen_12_mslps_gc_h_0276.png

Way out as hour 360 fwiw:
ecmen_12_mslps_gc_h_0360.png
 
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