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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

It's still early, but history suggests we could have another above average season for 2021 - albeit less active than 2020's extreme quantity.

La Niñas this strong are most commonly followed by a weaker La Niña the following year. Cool neutral/weak La Niña years have historically been very active when the Atlantic SST profile is favorable. The NMME and CanSIPS look quite favorable in the long range at the moment, but we are still well ahead of the SPB. At the moment, the Atlantic MDR is much warmer than normal, but we are still nearly 5 months from the start of the season.
 
Just so you know, however, that the analog system projects a very warm April and May, and a searing hot summer with multiple East Coast hurricane threats. So enjoy the chill and the chance for whote powder, because "Redux 2020 Hurricane Season" is high on the probability charts.

Sleep well tonight.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, January 16, 2020 at 9:40 P.M. CT​
 
As for hurricane potential, all I need to tell you is that the waters of the Atlantic Basin will be warmer overall, and the ITCZ is already kicking up in South America.

This is going to a challenging year weatherwise.


Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 10:20 P.M. CT
 
GaWx said:
The climate models don't know jack**. They're awful an therefore pretty useless.
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They did extremely and I mean extremely well last year with hurricane season and we have a similar background state, with possibly another emerging La Niña, +AMO, which favors higher activity right off the bat
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
They did extremely and I mean extremely well last year with hurricane season and we have a similar background state, with possibly another emerging La Niña, +AMO, which favors higher activity right off the bat
Click to expand...

But this model you showed has sinking air for the Atlantic.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
They did extremely and I mean extremely well last year with hurricane season and we have a similar background state, with possibly another emerging La Niña, +AMO, which favors higher activity right off the bat
Click to expand...

So if the models did so well and you're sort of defending the models, why wouldn't you go with this one showing sinking air and thus a much quieter season? I don't follow what you're saying.
 
GaWx said:
So if the models did so well and you're sort of defending the models, why wouldn't you go with this one showing sinking air and thus a much quieter season? I don't follow what you're saying.
Click to expand...
Maybe that's why we had a ton of storms but we didn't get crazy high end strength or a lot of of majors
 
GaWx said:
So if the models did so well and you're sort of defending the models, why wouldn't you go with this one showing sinking air and thus a much quieter season? I don't follow what you're saying.
Click to expand...
Opposite (wink wink)
 
GaWx said:
But this model you showed has sinking air for the Atlantic.
Click to expand...

Sinking air in the Atlantic doesn't equate to lower activity, it's the proximity of the rising/sinking air that really matters. The most active hurricane seasons on record usually have rising air over the Indian Ocean and some sinking in the Atlantic. The decreases in deep-layer easterly wind shear, additional low-level cyclonic shear vorticity, amplified African Easterly Wave (AEW) train that accompany having anomalous convection to your east in the tropics is how you get very active-hyperactive seasons

ERA-5 ASO VP200a for Hyperactive Atlantic Seasons
ERA5_ASO_VP200_anomalies_Hyperactive_Atlantic_crop.png

Above average Atlantic hurricane seasons
ERA5_ASO_VP200_anomalies_Aboveavg_Atlantic_crop.png
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Sinking air in the Atlantic doesn't equate to lower activity, it's the proximity of the rising/sinking air that matters not the sign. The most active hurricane seasons on record usually have rising air over the Indian Ocean and some sinking in the Atlantic. The decreases in deep-layer easterly wind shear, additional low-level cyclonic shear vorticity, amplified African Easterly Wave (AEW) train that accompany having anomalous convection to your east in the tropics is how you get very active-hyperactive seasons

ERA-5 ASO VP200a for Hyperactive Atlantic Seasons
View attachment 77874

Above average Atlantic hurricane seasons
View attachment 77875
Click to expand...

To further reinforce this point, this is what last year looked like.

☠ Rip

1614897639389.png
 
SD said:
Maybe that's why we had a ton of storms but we didn't get crazy high end strength or a lot of of majors
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But 2020 had 6 majors, including a cat 5 917 mb Iota, a very high end cat 4 Eta at 923 mb, and a high end cat 4 937 mb Laura. The 6 majors have been exceeded by only one season since 1851, the 7 of 2005.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
To further reinforce this point, this is what last year looked like.

☠ Rip

View attachment 77876
Click to expand...

But this map as well as the two analog maps you posted all have rising air in the E Atl, including at/near Cape Verde. The Cansips forecast map for 2021 doesn't.

Regardless, I still say seasonal models generally suck and especially one released this early for H season.
 
GaWx said:
But this map as well as the two analog maps you posted all have rising air in the E Atl, including at/near Cape Verde. The Cansips forecast map for 2021 doesn't.

Regardless, I still say seasonal models generally suck and especially one released this early for H season.
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The models didn't show rising air there this time last year and it verified stronger, I think you're reading into it too much...

The seasonal models were basically dead on the money this past year and in the absence of El Nino since 1995, anything but a well above average or hyperactive hurricane season has been really hard to come by.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The models didn't show rising air there this time last year and it verified stronger, I think you're reading into it too much...

The seasonal models were basically dead on the money this past year and in the absence of El Nino since 1995, anything but a well above average or hyperactive hurricane season has been really hard to come by.
Click to expand...

Probably I am reading too much into it. Yeah, I'm also expecting an active 2021 but am hoping it won't be anything like 2020. 2020 was so tiring that I even recall some hurricane weenies on this board saying they had become sick of hurricanes and wanted them to stop!
 
I sure hope we don’t have a hurricane season like last year. Zeta was the worse wind I’ve seen this for north in upstate sc. we still have trees down from the 50-55mph gusts we had from that


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
So does anyone have any idea what impact today’s volcano eruption on St. Vincent island might have on the coming tropical season.?
 
Chazwin said:
So does anyone have any idea what impact today’s volcano eruption on St. Vincent island might have on the coming tropical season.?
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I guess my thinking is if theres enough upper atmosphere ash debris that it could filter the sun over the MDR and maybe lower max SSTs?
 
Shaggy said:
I guess my thinking is if theres enough upper atmosphere ash debris that it could filter the sun over the MDR and maybe lower max SSTs?
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I also wonder what kind of effects it could have over Africa in terms of developing waves
 
The St Vincent volcano continues to produce large explosive eruptions releasing tons of gases and ash into the tropical ATL....though I have not seen much official data on what that means volume wise or what the volcano is capable of VEI wise.........the one this morning was the biggest so far and they say it is the worst since at least the 1902 eruption.....
 
Downeastnc said:
The St Vincent volcano continues to produce large explosive eruptions releasing tons of gases and ash into the tropical ATL....though I have not seen much official data on what that means volume wise or what the volcano is capable of VEI wise.........the one this morning was the biggest so far and they say it is the worst since at least the 1902 eruption.....
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Doing some research I found that the 1902 season only had 5 known storm, but 3 of those were landfalls on the Gulf coast. There were only two know storms in the Caribbean and both of those went well well east of Bermuda. Obviously being 1902 there were at least a few more fish storms that weren’t observed by shipping. Perhaps the volcanic dust in the atmosphere could have an impact on development... we know from recent years that development has been slow during times of increased Saharan dust over the tropical Atlantic.
 
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