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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

But this model you showed has sinking air for the Atlantic.

Sinking air in the Atlantic doesn't equate to lower activity, it's the proximity of the rising/sinking air that really matters. The most active hurricane seasons on record usually have rising air over the Indian Ocean and some sinking in the Atlantic. The decreases in deep-layer easterly wind shear, additional low-level cyclonic shear vorticity, amplified African Easterly Wave (AEW) train that accompany having anomalous convection to your east in the tropics is how you get very active-hyperactive seasons

ERA-5 ASO VP200a for Hyperactive Atlantic Seasons
ERA5_ASO_VP200_anomalies_Hyperactive_Atlantic_crop.png

Above average Atlantic hurricane seasons
ERA5_ASO_VP200_anomalies_Aboveavg_Atlantic_crop.png
 
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Sinking air in the Atlantic doesn't equate to lower activity, it's the proximity of the rising/sinking air that matters not the sign. The most active hurricane seasons on record usually have rising air over the Indian Ocean and some sinking in the Atlantic. The decreases in deep-layer easterly wind shear, additional low-level cyclonic shear vorticity, amplified African Easterly Wave (AEW) train that accompany having anomalous convection to your east in the tropics is how you get very active-hyperactive seasons

ERA-5 ASO VP200a for Hyperactive Atlantic Seasons
View attachment 77874

Above average Atlantic hurricane seasons
View attachment 77875

To further reinforce this point, this is what last year looked like.

☠ Rip

1614897639389.png
 
Maybe that's why we had a ton of storms but we didn't get crazy high end strength or a lot of of majors

But 2020 had 6 majors, including a cat 5 917 mb Iota, a very high end cat 4 Eta at 923 mb, and a high end cat 4 937 mb Laura. The 6 majors have been exceeded by only one season since 1851, the 7 of 2005.
 
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To further reinforce this point, this is what last year looked like.

☠ Rip

View attachment 77876

But this map as well as the two analog maps you posted all have rising air in the E Atl, including at/near Cape Verde. The Cansips forecast map for 2021 doesn't.

Regardless, I still say seasonal models generally suck and especially one released this early for H season.
 
But this map as well as the two analog maps you posted all have rising air in the E Atl, including at/near Cape Verde. The Cansips forecast map for 2021 doesn't.

Regardless, I still say seasonal models generally suck and especially one released this early for H season.

The models didn't show rising air there this time last year and it verified stronger, I think you're reading into it too much...

The seasonal models were basically dead on the money this past year and in the absence of El Nino since 1995, anything but a well above average or hyperactive hurricane season has been really hard to come by.
 
The models didn't show rising air there this time last year and it verified stronger, I think you're reading into it too much...

The seasonal models were basically dead on the money this past year and in the absence of El Nino since 1995, anything but a well above average or hyperactive hurricane season has been really hard to come by.

Probably I am reading too much into it. Yeah, I'm also expecting an active 2021 but am hoping it won't be anything like 2020. 2020 was so tiring that I even recall some hurricane weenies on this board saying they had become sick of hurricanes and wanted them to stop!
 
I sure hope we don’t have a hurricane season like last year. Zeta was the worse wind I’ve seen this for north in upstate sc. we still have trees down from the 50-55mph gusts we had from that


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So does anyone have any idea what impact today’s volcano eruption on St. Vincent island might have on the coming tropical season.?
 
So does anyone have any idea what impact today’s volcano eruption on St. Vincent island might have on the coming tropical season.?

I guess my thinking is if theres enough upper atmosphere ash debris that it could filter the sun over the MDR and maybe lower max SSTs?
 
I guess my thinking is if theres enough upper atmosphere ash debris that it could filter the sun over the MDR and maybe lower max SSTs?
I also wonder what kind of effects it could have over Africa in terms of developing waves
 
The St Vincent volcano continues to produce large explosive eruptions releasing tons of gases and ash into the tropical ATL....though I have not seen much official data on what that means volume wise or what the volcano is capable of VEI wise.........the one this morning was the biggest so far and they say it is the worst since at least the 1902 eruption.....
 
The St Vincent volcano continues to produce large explosive eruptions releasing tons of gases and ash into the tropical ATL....though I have not seen much official data on what that means volume wise or what the volcano is capable of VEI wise.........the one this morning was the biggest so far and they say it is the worst since at least the 1902 eruption.....
Doing some research I found that the 1902 season only had 5 known storm, but 3 of those were landfalls on the Gulf coast. There were only two know storms in the Caribbean and both of those went well well east of Bermuda. Obviously being 1902 there were at least a few more fish storms that weren’t observed by shipping. Perhaps the volcanic dust in the atmosphere could have an impact on development... we know from recent years that development has been slow during times of increased Saharan dust over the tropical Atlantic.
 
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