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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

Myfrotho704_

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It’s never to early to talk about what will end up happening, unlike winter storms in the SE, feeling a little “ahead” today
I’ll start out this thread I guess, and if it’s to early then just lock it 10D88C57-9D54-4117-81F0-C07CC3528896.png6C86A561-2785-4088-8151-ABA80C6FDC41.png8DC46BE3-00C0-4CAE-9A2C-51EF4075DE01.png
 
It's still early, but history suggests we could have another above average season for 2021 - albeit less active than 2020's extreme quantity.

La Niñas this strong are most commonly followed by a weaker La Niña the following year. Cool neutral/weak La Niña years have historically been very active when the Atlantic SST profile is favorable. The NMME and CanSIPS look quite favorable in the long range at the moment, but we are still well ahead of the SPB. At the moment, the Atlantic MDR is much warmer than normal, but we are still nearly 5 months from the start of the season.
 
Just so you know, however, that the analog system projects a very warm April and May, and a searing hot summer with multiple East Coast hurricane threats. So enjoy the chill and the chance for whote powder, because "Redux 2020 Hurricane Season" is high on the probability charts.

Sleep well tonight.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, January 16, 2020 at 9:40 P.M. CT
 
As for hurricane potential, all I need to tell you is that the waters of the Atlantic Basin will be warmer overall, and the ITCZ is already kicking up in South America.

This is going to a challenging year weatherwise.


Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 10:20 P.M. CT
 
The climate models don't know jack**. They're awful an therefore pretty useless.
They did extremely and I mean extremely well last year with hurricane season and we have a similar background state, with possibly another emerging La Niña, +AMO, which favors higher activity right off the bat
 
They did extremely and I mean extremely well last year with hurricane season and we have a similar background state, with possibly another emerging La Niña, +AMO, which favors higher activity right off the bat

But this model you showed has sinking air for the Atlantic.
 
They did extremely and I mean extremely well last year with hurricane season and we have a similar background state, with possibly another emerging La Niña, +AMO, which favors higher activity right off the bat

So if the models did so well and you're sort of defending the models, why wouldn't you go with this one showing sinking air and thus a much quieter season? I don't follow what you're saying.
 
So if the models did so well and you're sort of defending the models, why wouldn't you go with this one showing sinking air and thus a much quieter season? I don't follow what you're saying.
Maybe that's why we had a ton of storms but we didn't get crazy high end strength or a lot of of majors
 
So if the models did so well and you're sort of defending the models, why wouldn't you go with this one showing sinking air and thus a much quieter season? I don't follow what you're saying.
Opposite (wink wink)
 
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