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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Notorious CSD said:
The talk about the upcoming pattern begs the question. Can it really be a great pattern if it doesn't produce snow here? If it's supposed to be a great pattern for producing snow here based on patterns that produced in the past, is it getting harder for these patterns to produce? If so, why is that the case?
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brick is that you
 
Notorious CSD said:
The talk about the upcoming pattern begs the question. Can it really be a great pattern if it doesn't produce snow here? If it's supposed to be a great pattern for producing snow here based on patterns that produced in the past, is it getting harder for these patterns to produce? If so, why is that the case?
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In LA Nina winters we have very few patterns that are great for producing snow. BUT this upcoming time frame is screaming with potential. Thats a huge bonus right now considering the crap show of a winter so far. There's a few analogs out there where we've scored big in LA Nina tho just a few.
 
Notorious CSD said:
Oh, I agree it can happen. Just wondering what everyone else's thoughts were on the subject. Kind of like can a sports team be great even if it doesn't win the championship? Personally, I think for my area we are getting less production out of patterns that were historically good for producing snow here, or the models show them in the medium to long range but they then just don't end up the way they were modeled. It could be a combo of both, a case of we just don't get those patterns as often anymore because of climate factors, and when we do it is still harder to actually get snow out of them as it was in the past. Greg Fishel posted on Facebook the other day that warmer winds coming off the ocean make it more difficult to get snow here in the Triangle compared to areas to our west. I wonder if this is making it harder to get historically good patterns to produce snow here because the ocean continues to get warmer and warmer, thus creating more warm air that inhibits snow here.
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Agree 100%
 
Broken024 said:
Where's my ------- blizzard
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Hope you like it dry and cold.


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Chandler said:
Ensembles haven’t really been excited from the start at least snow wise for us. Just a few nice gfs runs that’s about it
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The last good pattern to produce snow (jan 2018) had high snow means from the start of the signal, dec 2018 did if I’m not mistaken, I know things appear sometimes as we get closer, but just like a global producing fantasy snow, I would like to see ensembles showing a snowy signal, not just one member skewing the mean, or a mean under a inch, if the ensemble isn’t showing snow, there’s probably a pretty good reason
 
Here's a fun game, how many runs will it take the Models to start popping a big time winter Storm? I'm going with 6, by 06z Saturday morning we will see one on Models

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Myfrotho704_ said:
The last good pattern to produce snow (jan 2018) had high snow means from the start of the signal, dec 2018 did if I’m not mistaken, I know things appear sometimes as we get closer, but just like a global producing fantasy snow, I would like to see ensembles showing a snowy signal, not just one member skewing the mean, or a mean under a inch, if the ensemble isn’t showing snow, there’s probably a pretty good reason
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Rain cold, is that you?
 
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