I just checked on FL hits on record resulting from late Oct. (10/17-31) W Car or Gulf geneses plus Wilma (since she was still in NW Car 10/21) back to 1851 and found some interesting things:
1. Most recent hit Wilma of 2005 with a MH hit on SW FL. This originated in the W Car and it went around Cuba.
2. Next most recent was 1998's Mitch, which was first in the W Car. He hit SW FL as a TS and also went around Cuba.
3. Assuming I didn't miss one, you then have to go back 48 years to Love of 1950, which formed in the central GOM and then hit the Big Bend as a TS.
4. Then you have to go back 29 years to the MH hit on Tampa in 1921 from one that formed in the W Car and then went around Cuba.
5. Next go back 17 years to the 1904 FL Pan hit of TS #6 that formed in the SW GOM.
6. #9 of 1892 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the C GOM
7. #16 of 1887 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the E GOM.
8. #7 of 1879 that hit a little N of Tampa as a TS after it formed in the W Car and went around Cuba
9. #7 of 1877 that hit the Big Bend as a TS after forming in the W GOM
10. #5 of 1872 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the C GOM.
11. #7 of 1865, which hit S FL as a H after forming in the W Car and going over W Cuba.
12. # 8 of 1859, which hit Tampa as a H after forming in the SW GOM.
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Analysis:
- 12 storms over 169 years or once every 14 years
- Out of the 12, only one crossed Cuba at all and it was a whopping 155 years ago! That one from 1865 appears to be the closest analog since 1851 to the current situation if it were to hit FL.
- Origins 7 GOM and 5 W Car
- 2 MH hits, 2 non-major H hits, 8 TS hits
- 6 of 7 GOM geneses hit as TS but only 2 of 5 W Car geneses hit as TS. Both MH hits from W Car.
- Lots of hits on Tampa (5 of the 12)
- Only 5 since 1900 (only one every 24 years) but 7 during 1851-1899 or one every 7 years!
1. Most recent hit Wilma of 2005 with a MH hit on SW FL. This originated in the W Car and it went around Cuba.
2. Next most recent was 1998's Mitch, which was first in the W Car. He hit SW FL as a TS and also went around Cuba.
3. Assuming I didn't miss one, you then have to go back 48 years to Love of 1950, which formed in the central GOM and then hit the Big Bend as a TS.
4. Then you have to go back 29 years to the MH hit on Tampa in 1921 from one that formed in the W Car and then went around Cuba.
5. Next go back 17 years to the 1904 FL Pan hit of TS #6 that formed in the SW GOM.
6. #9 of 1892 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the C GOM
7. #16 of 1887 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the E GOM.
8. #7 of 1879 that hit a little N of Tampa as a TS after it formed in the W Car and went around Cuba
9. #7 of 1877 that hit the Big Bend as a TS after forming in the W GOM
10. #5 of 1872 that hit Tampa as a TS after forming in the C GOM.
11. #7 of 1865, which hit S FL as a H after forming in the W Car and going over W Cuba.
12. # 8 of 1859, which hit Tampa as a H after forming in the SW GOM.
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Analysis:
- 12 storms over 169 years or once every 14 years
- Out of the 12, only one crossed Cuba at all and it was a whopping 155 years ago! That one from 1865 appears to be the closest analog since 1851 to the current situation if it were to hit FL.
- Origins 7 GOM and 5 W Car
- 2 MH hits, 2 non-major H hits, 8 TS hits
- 6 of 7 GOM geneses hit as TS but only 2 of 5 W Car geneses hit as TS. Both MH hits from W Car.
- Lots of hits on Tampa (5 of the 12)
- Only 5 since 1900 (only one every 24 years) but 7 during 1851-1899 or one every 7 years!