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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Henry2326 said:
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Potential ridge over troubled waters home brew type of system that JB talks about and even mentioned today in his Saturday Summary. Whatever this ends up being, which op models and most ensemble members insist will remain very weak, appears headed for the SE coast around Thursday due to mainly westerly low level steering. Conditions aren’t very favorable but they’re not really all that unfavorable with very warm water that will be traversed, mainly low to moderate shear, not much dry air nearby, and an upper high as well as sfc high that will be just N and NE of it. The ICON and Euro have been onto this as a very weak sfc low for many runs. One Euro run had a TD or TS. As Papin mentioned, there already was a tiny LLC near 30N, 61W per the last vis pics. Just something to watch.
 
This recent ascat does suggest a closed circulation continues near 30N, 62W with persistent convection and what look like 30 knot highest winds. Hmmm.

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Here’s what end of 0Z ICON has, the most active run yet as it has it first go to near ILM before stalling just offshore and then looping back offshore due to a new big NE high blocking it:



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This ICON run has “ridge over troubled water” written all over it.
 
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0Z EPS: most active EPS yet with quite a few that may be a TD and several that look like a TS with the coast of all of the SE states FL-NC directly affected depending on the member.

Also, keep in mind that if this ever becomes a significant system, it could drastically change the path of 92L and the other systems as appeared to have happened on this EPS run.

This map is way out at hour 144...we may be watching this feature all week due to very slow movement:


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06z Icon.....00z CMC and 06z GFS have waves that are south of the ICON position....

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GaWx said:
This recent ascat does suggest a closed circulation continues near 30N, 62W with persistent convection and what look like 30 knot highest winds. Hmmm.

View attachment 48078

Here’s what end of 0Z ICON has, the most active run yet as it has it first go to near ILM before stalling just offshore and then looping back offshore due to a new big NE high blocking it:



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This ICON run has “ridge over troubled water” written all over it.
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Although I see this loop going south in the model, it's hard to believe that it could fight the gulf stream.......Euro bet and lost that Florence was going to go south from Wilmington to Charleston......
 
That area near Bermuda has some sneaky potential the conditions get a little better late in the week as it approaches the US. You can see the 850/700mb identity of it making LF near ILM on the gfs Wednesday and the Euro Friday.
 
ryan1234 said:
Yes, modeling has been absolutely stellar thus far...

And he basically declared the season over. We haven’t even peaked yet.

Where are the mods for post like this? It clutters up this board.


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And your complaining about it cluttered up the board more than that one post. Relax, don't like a members comments, ignore them and move on.
 
metwannabe said:
And your complaining about it cluttered up the board more than that one post. Relax, don't like a members comments, ignore them and move on.
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Fair enough. But in my defense I do ignore those people. However, it doesn’t mean I won’t see said post, especially when it’s quoted.


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Looks like we may have Paulette and Rene by tomorrow


1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure
system located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
northern Leeward Islands continues to get better organized. A
tropical depression is expected to form later tonight or on Monday
while the low moves westward or west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms continue to steadily increase and are
showing signs of organization in association with a low pressure
system located just west of Senegal. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form within the next day or so while the system moves
generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests
in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system
as gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely there Monday
night and Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch or Warning could be
required for the islands by early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
In addition to the invest south of Bermuda, the tropical wave over Burkina-Faso is the one we really need to pay attention to over the next few weeks imo, odds are this is probably gonna become a strong hurricane next week as TD 17 & 18 completely obliterate the TUTT in front of it.

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Now
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Day 7 GEFS bulk shear (200-850 hPa) anomaly forecast


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0z UKMET

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0z CMC

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0z GFS

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0z ECMWF

1599481583613.png
 
Here is hour 228 of the 12Z Euro:

Yes, that is Rene moving SOUTHWARD near 23N, 49W back toward the MDR at hour 228 on this 12Z Euro map WSW of potential TD 20! Meanwhile, the wave inside Africa is near the NE Caribbean. Potential TD 21 is just off Africa! Paulette is moving NE over the N Atl. So, there are a whopping 5 TCs at 0Z on 9/17 on this Euro run. If we added the low SW of Bermuda, which is already dissipated by then, that would mean SIX systems to follow just over the next 10 days!!

By the way, if the low now SW of Bermuda were to become a TD, potential TD 20 could be TD 21, and potential TD 21 could be TD 22. And this is assuming that the current Caribbean system doesn't become a TD. Unreal!!

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Here on this 216 hour map of the 12Z EPS, those just offshore the SE US, the TD over FL, and the H in the E GOM are from Paulette. The one SW of PR and the 2 NE of PR (yes, there are 2) are from Rene. The two in the E Caribbean are from the wave currently inside Africa. The one on the NC coast is from the low now SW of Bermuda:

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GaWx said:
Here on this 216 hour map of the 12Z EPS, those just offshore the SE US, the TD over FL, and the H in the E GOM are from Paulette. The one SW of PR and the 2 NE of PR (yes, there are 2) are from Rene. The two in the E Caribbean are from the wave currently inside Africa. The one on the NC coast is from the low now SW of Bermuda:

BrRiLEv.png
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So we can’t write off Paulette and Rene?


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Here is the hour 360 of that same 12Z EPS: all or most of these 13 appear to be from a combo of Rene and the wave currently inside Africa with most from the wave inside Africa but at least two and probably at least 3 from Rene. I know that the one just offshore NW FL and the one just offshore NE MX are from Rene:

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Henry2326 said:
This far out, we can't write off anything.....the models are telling us that we have 4 times the risk that we typically have when we are looking for 1 hurricane.....
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Not to mention there's been quite a few hurricanes the last few years that should have recurved and hit the US

Not that I'm at all saying these will but we definitely can't make certain declarations this far out
 
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