• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

NoSnowATL said:
So true, waiting on the local weather guys to talk about the sunny skies outbreak this weekend.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree that the environment will probably support tropical cyclone development. I hope we don't have to hear about any more covid canes or megasuperduper hurricane cluster bombs or the like.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't disagree that the environment will probably support tropical cyclone development. I hope we don't have to hear about any more covid canes or megasuperduper hurricane cluster bombs or the like.
Click to expand...
Covidcane was the worst. Words cannot Express.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's 2020. We need to be as extreme and alarmist-sounding as we can.
Click to expand...
Yeah because this is totally unbridled alarmism when the Atlantic has produced a record number of tropical cyclones and top 10 ACE thru early August. Did you even bother to read NOAA’s or CSU’s latest hurricane outlooks?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah because this is totally unbridled alarmism when the Atlantic has produced a record number of tropical cyclones and top 10 ACE thru early August. Did you even bother to read NOAA’s or CSU’s latest hurricane outlooks?
Click to expand...
I have no problem at all with data presentation or acknowledging the pace we're on. It's amazing to watch, actually. I'm merely talking about the language that is being used to describe things. A hurricane outbreak is most definitely a 2020 way of describing things.
 
Rain Cold said:
I have no problem at all with data presentation or acknowledging the pace we're on. It's amazing to watch, actually. I'm merely talking about the language that is being used to describe things. A hurricane outbreak is most definitely a 2020 way of describing things.
Click to expand...

It's totally valid language imo to describe what's probably coming down the pipe in several weeks. Climatologically, it's our most active time of the year, but this year is likely to be much more active than climo during the peak of the season
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yahoo News also just published an article on the ongoing Atlantic Hurricane Season, and yours truly (me) is in it .

https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-experts-issue-most-threatening-024100977.html
Click to expand...

The same article was also published in CBS News, insane to see my name on CBS News (again).
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-season-2020-forecast-extremely-active-24-named-storms/

Here's another one from a few weeks ago:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurric...5VOoZlQmfQsuP3_UkWfnr0b2KDCvv5JnCsN_KaB_rO1B0
 
Just to put things into perspective, CSU has been issuing hurricane season forecasts for a very long time (since the 1980s and Bill Gray started a lot of this work back in the early 1980s), this year is the most aggressive one they've produced to date, 2005 being the previous record holder. It's pretty insane.

 
Webberweather53 said:
Just to put things into perspective, CSU has been issuing hurricane season forecasts for a very long time (since the 1980s and Bill Gray started a lot of this work back in the early 1980s), this year is the most aggressive one they've produced to date, 2005 being the previous record holder. It's pretty insane.

Click to expand...


We have a lot more blocking nowadays so think 2005 on roids without the recurves.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Could this be a situation where everything looks perfect for a blockbuster, apocalyptic pattern for hurricanes, then something goes wrong and it doesn’t happen? Like our blockbuster winter patterns that show up on models, but never materialize?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Could this be a situation where everything looks perfect for a blockbuster, apocalyptic pattern for hurricanes, then something goes wrong and it doesn’t happen? Like our blockbuster winter patterns that show up on models, but never materialize?
Click to expand...

I hope so or we are screwed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Today's 12z ECMWF remains pretty stedfast in developing this wave that'll come off the coast of Africa in a few days. It has a sacrificial wave immediately out ahead of it that should moisten its nearby environment and the suppressed Kelvin Wave over the basin should be leaving the Atlantic in a few days. There is certainly a window of opportunity to see another tropical cyclone here.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_eatl_fh120-240.gif


In all likelihood however, unless this becomes a powerful hurricane east of the Antilles, it'll have to plow through a massive wall of shear associated w/ a large basin-scale TUTT if it tries to lift north of the Greater Antilles and Puerto Rico and make a run for the SE US. You can thank the increased irrotational outflow from the upcoming surge in Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity for that. Regardless of what happens w/ this particular system, it's only a matter of time before the Atlantic goes hog wild.

1596742352439.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Today's 12z ECMWF remains pretty stedfast in developing this wave that'll come off the coast of Africa in a few days. It has a sacrificial wave immediately out ahead of it that should moisten its nearby environment and the suppressed Kelvin Wave over the basin should be leaving the Atlantic in a few days. There is certainly a window of opportunity to see another tropical cyclone here.

View attachment 46145


In all likelihood however, unless this becomes a powerful hurricane east of the Antilles, it'll have to plow through a massive wall of shear associated w/ a large basin-scale TUTT if it tries to lift north of the Greater Antilles and Puerto Rico and make a run for the SE US. You can thank the increased irrotational outflow from the upcoming surge in Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity for that. Regardless of what happens w/ this particular system, it's only a matter of time before the Atlantic goes hog wild.

View attachment 46146
Click to expand...
12z ICON still hanging with it....

ScreenshotCapture_2020_08_06_16_13_23_538.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yahoo News also just published an article on the ongoing Atlantic Hurricane Season, and yours truly (me) is in it .

https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-experts-issue-most-threatening-024100977.html
Click to expand...

Congrats. Seeing grad student from this weather community get recognized in the news for something they've been working towards is a really fantastic and joyful event. I thank you for sharing your expertise on this forum, and hopefully your presence serves as inspiration for the younger weather nuts and weenies that wish to pursue a similar path in the sciences.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I have to admit, the ICON didn’t do too shabby with Isaias’s genesis and it agrees with the European ensemble. May be a brief window of opportunity in the eastern Atlantic as the suppressed kelvin wave gets out of the way.
Click to expand...
18z GFS hanging with both ICON and Euro....nothing to write home about but dejavu....3ba61b49-ada8-42df-8934-b81b66710e97.gif
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah someone should have been fired over that nonsense
Click to expand...

I thought I was the only one that thought it was a shameless grab for ratings by NBC executives. No one will get fired cause it was probably a group decision, and I've worked on enough corporate litigation discoveries to know that the NBC executive team was probably circle-jerking each other in e-mails when they first thought-up the name. They were so excited about it that they didn't even wait until a serious hurricane was bearing down on an area with a many people that would have to risk exposing themselves to Covid-19 at a shelter. You got to be first I guess.
 
Looks like we got a new lemon in the Atlantic again. The development chances are very low right now though.

B34B5001-E97A-46FD-810E-4503750B8B28.png
1. A tropical wave is located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
BufordWX said:
Looks like we got a new lemon in the Atlantic again. The development chances are very low right now though.

View attachment 46175
1. A tropical wave is located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Click to expand...
That's Grapefruit
 
BufordWX said:
Looks like we got a new lemon in the Atlantic again. The development chances are very low right now though.

View attachment 46175
1. A tropical wave is located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Click to expand...

Yeah this is actually the leading wave out ahead of our area of interest that's emerging off the coast of Africa. This particular system has had pretty persistent, consolidated deep convection of late despite a suppressed Kelvin wave moving overhead
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top