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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

It’s the GEFS and 300+ hours out, but that’s quite a few members showing a GOM storm in the very long range.A0C1044A-A08E-4FE9-8C4B-3047139F792A.png
 
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I think this day 10 threat is definitely something to watch. It has quite a bit of support. I think that one thing that could inhibit this threat would be a transition to the Pacific. Other than that I see that the GFS, GEFS, EPS, ECMWF, and CMC have it. So it’s at least worth monitoring how it develops over the next several days.
 
Looking at the 500mb heights, I’d favor a pacific TC , although that trough that digs down in the east needs to be watched as it could serve as a weakness A677F9C5-953C-4D44-804F-266BF51D9A13.png263414B7-8CD4-44FD-82DB-C98BE3ED7C6F.png
 
Probably doesn’t mean a lot this far out, but the 12z runs of the GEFS and GEPS were both quite active at day 10. Does anyone know what the EPS is showing during this time?
GEFS:
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GEPS:
0185D5A0-CDA6-4092-8DF1-FFD26F7E9CB8.png
 
Here’s the EPS for hr 24-72 looks much more active than the previous run. I want to say this threat is nothing but the euro suit keeps drawing me back in.

60946123-498F-4221-8492-FF6FA35F3189.jpegB9C25D0B-0BDC-4908-B4A1-A0607E3E0A3F.jpeg
 
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I see some models are back and forth on what they think will happen once it hits the Atlantic solutions from just a tropical wave to a low end tropical storm. I guess we’ll have to see but I would most likely bet on tropical depression strength at most.
 
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GFS starts development around hr 198. This is not a good look.
2D645421-532B-44A9-A014-D9381B59C258.gif

edit: Now out to hr 312 and this is looking like a really bad scenario. I’ll post it when it finishes running.

edit: Here they are
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99CB3B79-1BE5-4951-848D-A5DD5984B52A.gif
 
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