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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Very weak as of now. This is the feature that's under 94L that Levi was talking about that could head straight towards south fl and into the gulf. Something to keep a eye on
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FWIW I believe some of the gefs models shows this same low in the northern gulf around this time frame
 
Peak of the season and a system in the MDR is struggling with conditions. Story of the year so far. If we cant change conditions to be more conducive then we are gonna have a ton of named storms that are forgotten by next year. That's not a bad thing just a boring thing.......we all like tracking big storms.
 
Shaggy said:
Peak of the season and a system in the MDR is struggling with conditions. Story of the year so far. If we cant change conditions to be more conducive then we are gonna have a ton of named storms that are forgotten by next year. That's not a bad thing just a boring thing.......we all like tracking big storms.
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That is definitely a very good thing IF it were to continue as boring is good. I think the story of the year so far is easily the very powerful Laura, which is an E MDR (E of 50W) originating storm. This makes a notable four seasons in a row of an E MDR genesis hitting the US. Also, the US has had another active year overall, regardless of what happens from here on out.

The wave about to come off Africa is a huge wild card right now. It getting strong early is our ally as it would favor an early recurve vs staying weak favoring a more dangerous further westward potential for the Caribbean and points W and N.
 
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GaWx said:
That is definitely a very good thing IF it were to continue as boring is good. I think the story of the year so far is easily the very powerful Laura, which is an E MDR originating storm. Also, the US has had another active year overall, regardless of what happens from here on out.

The wave about to come off Africa is a huge wild card right now. It getting strong early is our ally as it would favor an early recurve vs staying weak favoring a more dangerous further westward potential for the Caribbean and points W and N.
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Experience tells me with Paullette and Rene meandering around the central Atlantic theres plenty of weakness in the ridge and the next wave will follow them on out. Things can certainly change it that has been my experience over the decades.
 
This is interesting:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">While the Atlantic has had a record-setting number of named storms (17) thru September 8, they have so far combined to generate less Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) than <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Hurricane?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Hurricane</a> Dorian (2019) did by itself. ACE is integrated metric accounting for intensity and duration. <a href="https://t.co/0OBUs8BFhL">pic.twitter.com/0OBUs8BFhL</a></p>&mdash; Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) <a href="">September 8, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Shaggy said:
Experience tells me with Paullette and Rene meandering around the central Atlantic theres plenty of weakness in the ridge and the next wave will follow them on out. Things can certainly change it that has been my experience over the decades.
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Regarding the wave about to come off Africa, the 12Z GEFS mean joins the 12Z runs of the GFS, ICON, CMC, and very likely UKMET (based on hour 144) with a well OTS recurve. The mean is further NE than recent GEFS runs. I can’t see individual members yet. So, there still may be a couple that go much further west.

So, the 12Z consensus so far is saying recurve well OTS and even E of Bermuda. We’ll see what the all knowing great King says in an hour or so.
 
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GaWx said:
Regarding the wave about to come off Africa, the 12Z GEFS mean joins the 12Z runs of the GFS, ICON, CMC, and very likely UKMET (based on its 12Z run) with a well OTS recurve. The mean is further NE than recent GEFS runs. I can’t see individual members yet. So, there still may be a couple that go much further west.

So, the 12Z consensus so far is saying recurve well OTS and even E of Bermuda. We’ll see what the all knowing great King says in an hour or so.
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Will be interesting to see what it looks like in 2 weeks time.....
 
00z GFS PARA......I'm not sure which storm this is.....but it still has the Caribbean scenery tour....

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Regarding the wave now coming off of Africa, all 12Z guidance to this point has been strongly suggesting well OTS. However, the12Z para GEFS says hold on a minute as it has out of its ~31 members ~5 that go into the Caribbean and 2 others that go north of the GAs and then actually hit near the SC/NC border. So, ~7 of 31 of the 12Z para GEFS are very threatening.
 
Based on hour 120, the 12Z King looks to be going WAY west of the 0Z. How far west is anyone’s guess as it is still early in the run.
 
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