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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

GaWx said:
CsdlGsM.png

:eek: :eek: :eek:
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Well the "lull" was fun

We could clear the list just from the TWO
 
My friend works for an airplane subsidiary distributor/manufacturer for Desault Falcon, and receives e-mails from private meteorologists working for the company so they can help employees and customers plan around weather-related interruptions. They sent e-mail about this storm that my friend read to me yesterday afternoon while we were playing a really bad video game called Sea of Thieves. The company was really concerned about TCs tracking through the Caribbean, and disrupting business in Central and South America, as well as the Islands. They put a lot of stress on La Nina taking full control and then mentioned how teleconnections favored a zonal subtropical ridge over most of the Atlantic that would get squeezed to the South and West by troughs swinging through the Midwest and Central Atlantic. I was surprised that the AO and PNA got a mention as they contributed to a more zonal pattern with troughs over the North Atlantic flattening out the ridge in the subtropics. They also said that the ITCZ would propagate further north into the Antilles and Caribbean. It's way too far in the future, but I find it interesting that some private Mets from an airplane company were saying this yesterday afternoon.
 
Tornadocane said:
My friend works for an airplane subsidiary distributor/manufacturer for Desault Falcon, and receives e-mails from private meteorologists working for the company so they can help employees and customers plan around weather-related interruptions. They sent e-mail about this storm that my friend read to me yesterday afternoon while we were playing a really bad video game called Sea of Thieves. The company was really concerned about TCs tracking through the Caribbean, and disrupting business in Central and South America, as well as the Islands. They put a lot of stress on La Nina taking full control and then mentioned how teleconnections favored a zonal subtropical ridge over most of the Atlantic that would get squeezed to the South and West by troughs swinging through the Midwest and Central Atlantic. I was surprised that the AO and PNA got a mention as they contributed to a more zonal pattern with troughs over the North Atlantic flattening out the ridge in the subtropics. They also said that the ITCZ would propagate further north into the Antilles and Caribbean. It's way too far in the future, but I find it interesting that some private Mets from an airplane company were saying this yesterday afternoon.
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You took in a lot of info, I can’t even recite my home address when I try gaming.
 
910guy said:
You took in a lot of info, I can’t even recite my home address when I try gaming.
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Like I said. It's a stupid game where you spend 75% of your time on a ship doing nothing but steering, dropping anchors, etc., and I like to hear what the meteorologists at my friend's company say cause they always come up with some good analyses that I like to pawn off as my own ideas.
 
From previous models it looks like each run has it moving more westward in the gulf for a landfall....a day ago it was the eastern coast of Florida and now it is the panhandle before the curve.....
 
Code Orange in the Gulf

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a
couple of hundred miles east of the Central Bahamas is associated
with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level
winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

two_atl_5d0 (9).png
 
Brent said:
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This 12Z EPS is much less threatening than the 0Z EPS, which I posted late last night with the o_Oo_Oo_O. So, hopefully the 12Z Euro suite is more representative of the risk than that very scary 0z Euro suite. Who the heck knows as the models keep jumping back and forth from higher risk to lower risk. I hope and pray that early recurves reappear again on models with frequency just as they did at 12Z yesterday.
 
GaWx said:
This 12Z EPS is much less threatening than the 0Z EPS, which I posted late last night with the o_Oo_Oo_O. So, hopefully the 12Z Euro suite is more representative of the risk than that very scary 0z Euro suite. Who the heck knows as the models keep jumping back and forth from higher risk to lower risk. I hope and pray that early recurves reappear again on models with frequency just as they did at 12Z yesterday.
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I hope its a re-curve, but I dont believe the Euro right now. Last 4 runs of the GFS has basically moved it through the islands....I'm hanging with that right now. Prepare for the worse, hope for the best.
 
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