• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

GaWx said:
CsdlGsM.png

:eek: :eek: :eek:
Click to expand...

Well the "lull" was fun

We could clear the list just from the TWO
 
My friend works for an airplane subsidiary distributor/manufacturer for Desault Falcon, and receives e-mails from private meteorologists working for the company so they can help employees and customers plan around weather-related interruptions. They sent e-mail about this storm that my friend read to me yesterday afternoon while we were playing a really bad video game called Sea of Thieves. The company was really concerned about TCs tracking through the Caribbean, and disrupting business in Central and South America, as well as the Islands. They put a lot of stress on La Nina taking full control and then mentioned how teleconnections favored a zonal subtropical ridge over most of the Atlantic that would get squeezed to the South and West by troughs swinging through the Midwest and Central Atlantic. I was surprised that the AO and PNA got a mention as they contributed to a more zonal pattern with troughs over the North Atlantic flattening out the ridge in the subtropics. They also said that the ITCZ would propagate further north into the Antilles and Caribbean. It's way too far in the future, but I find it interesting that some private Mets from an airplane company were saying this yesterday afternoon.
 
Tornadocane said:
My friend works for an airplane subsidiary distributor/manufacturer for Desault Falcon, and receives e-mails from private meteorologists working for the company so they can help employees and customers plan around weather-related interruptions. They sent e-mail about this storm that my friend read to me yesterday afternoon while we were playing a really bad video game called Sea of Thieves. The company was really concerned about TCs tracking through the Caribbean, and disrupting business in Central and South America, as well as the Islands. They put a lot of stress on La Nina taking full control and then mentioned how teleconnections favored a zonal subtropical ridge over most of the Atlantic that would get squeezed to the South and West by troughs swinging through the Midwest and Central Atlantic. I was surprised that the AO and PNA got a mention as they contributed to a more zonal pattern with troughs over the North Atlantic flattening out the ridge in the subtropics. They also said that the ITCZ would propagate further north into the Antilles and Caribbean. It's way too far in the future, but I find it interesting that some private Mets from an airplane company were saying this yesterday afternoon.
Click to expand...
You took in a lot of info, I can’t even recite my home address when I try gaming.
 
910guy said:
You took in a lot of info, I can’t even recite my home address when I try gaming.
Click to expand...

Like I said. It's a stupid game where you spend 75% of your time on a ship doing nothing but steering, dropping anchors, etc., and I like to hear what the meteorologists at my friend's company say cause they always come up with some good analyses that I like to pawn off as my own ideas.
 
From previous models it looks like each run has it moving more westward in the gulf for a landfall....a day ago it was the eastern coast of Florida and now it is the panhandle before the curve.....
 
Code Orange in the Gulf

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a
couple of hundred miles east of the Central Bahamas is associated
with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level
winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

two_atl_5d0 (9).png
 
Brent said:
View attachment 48287
Click to expand...

This 12Z EPS is much less threatening than the 0Z EPS, which I posted late last night with the o_Oo_Oo_O. So, hopefully the 12Z Euro suite is more representative of the risk than that very scary 0z Euro suite. Who the heck knows as the models keep jumping back and forth from higher risk to lower risk. I hope and pray that early recurves reappear again on models with frequency just as they did at 12Z yesterday.
 
GaWx said:
This 12Z EPS is much less threatening than the 0Z EPS, which I posted late last night with the o_Oo_Oo_O. So, hopefully the 12Z Euro suite is more representative of the risk than that very scary 0z Euro suite. Who the heck knows as the models keep jumping back and forth from higher risk to lower risk. I hope and pray that early recurves reappear again on models with frequency just as they did at 12Z yesterday.
Click to expand...
I hope its a re-curve, but I dont believe the Euro right now. Last 4 runs of the GFS has basically moved it through the islands....I'm hanging with that right now. Prepare for the worse, hope for the best.
 
The Gulf continues to interest me most in the short term though after seeing what Laura just did yeah the models are kind of blah but they've been blah quite a bit already

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the
western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a
surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level
winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Brent said:
The Gulf continues to interest me most in the short term though after seeing what Laura just did yeah the models are kind of blah but they've been blah quite a bit already

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the
western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a
surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level
winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Click to expand...
The models appear to do better with a large storm that's slower....like picking upon this one off Africa, but can't see the homegrown popups.
 
Not sure if we're lucky enough to avoid another major hurricane hitting the US again in 2020. So much going on right now.
 
Run a loop of the GFS-para after hr 100 through the end (over the Atlantic), something tells me they got some bugs to work still.... it literally shows Paulette, Renee, 95L (future Sally) all looping at some point, with Renee making a couple of loops. Of course, who knows, models seem to be having a difficult time resolving so many tropical entities
 
Looking at the models right now, it just seems to me that it favors recurving for systems that don’t reach the islands. There just seems now to be too many troughs coming east to allow much of a threat to the east coast unless one just has absolutely perfect timing. The concern right now with troughs coming East to me seem to be for systems that reach the islands, staying on a more southerly track and going into the Gulf and getting picked up by a trough and going into Alabama or the Florida panhandle.
 
Chazwin said:
Looking at the models right now, it just seems to me that it favors recurving for systems that don’t reach the islands. There just seems now to be too many troughs coming east to allow much of a threat to the east coast unless one just has absolutely perfect timing. The concern right now with troughs coming East to me seem to be for systems that reach the islands, staying on a more southerly track and going into the Gulf and getting picked up by a trough and going into Alabama or the Florida panhandle.
Click to expand...
The more systems that recurve and go ots . It will pump up the southeastern ridge even more heading into winter . It being a La Niña winter ... could make it even more of a milder winter for most southeast coming up
 
tennessee storm said:
The more systems that recurve and go ots . It will pump up the southeastern ridge even more heading into winter . It being a La Niña winter ... could make it even more of a milder winter for most southeast coming up
Click to expand...

So basically an extended fall into spring.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
tennessee storm said:
The more systems that recurve and go ots . It will pump up the southeastern ridge even more heading into winter . It being a La Niña winter ... could make it even more of a milder winter for most southeast coming up
Click to expand...

I would love to see the data on that. Where could I find it?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top