Henry2326
Member
If it ends up like this, we should feel lucky....18z GFS going east of Florida barely
View attachment 48296
Recurves at the last minute View attachment 48297
If it ends up like this, we should feel lucky....18z GFS going east of Florida barely
View attachment 48296
Recurves at the last minute View attachment 48297
The models appear to do better with a large storm that's slower....like picking upon this one off Africa, but can't see the homegrown popups.The Gulf continues to interest me most in the short term though after seeing what Laura just did yeah the models are kind of blah but they've been blah quite a bit already
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the
western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a
surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level
winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
The more systems that recurve and go ots . It will pump up the southeastern ridge even more heading into winter . It being a La Niña winter ... could make it even more of a milder winter for most southeast coming upLooking at the models right now, it just seems to me that it favors recurving for systems that don’t reach the islands. There just seems now to be too many troughs coming east to allow much of a threat to the east coast unless one just has absolutely perfect timing. The concern right now with troughs coming East to me seem to be for systems that reach the islands, staying on a more southerly track and going into the Gulf and getting picked up by a trough and going into Alabama or the Florida panhandle.
The more systems that recurve and go ots . It will pump up the southeastern ridge even more heading into winter . It being a La Niña winter ... could make it even more of a milder winter for most southeast coming up
The more systems that recurve and go ots . It will pump up the southeastern ridge even more heading into winter . It being a La Niña winter ... could make it even more of a milder winter for most southeast coming up
The more systems that recurve and go ots . It will pump up the southeastern ridge even more heading into winter . It being a La Niña winter ... could make it even more of a milder winter for most southeast coming up