Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[Henry2326]

 

[Arcc]

Ohh definitely watch out for Vicky. That name alone screams trouble.

 

[Dawgdaze22]

You do realize it's only September 7th right?

Lol

What do you think the likelihood of another SE impact is?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Webberweather53]

What do you think the likelihood of another SE impact is?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The potential degrees of freedom is extremely high when you have 4-5 TCs simultaneously in a small area of the Atlantic in conjunction w/ an unpredictable upstream pattern, aside from the fact that there's 23 days left in the month, we really don't know where these storms are going to go >>> it not smart of anyone whatsoever to say the SE US will avoid seeing any significant TC impacts in September when we simply just don't know that.

 

[GaWx]

These 3 members of the Happy hour GEFS in the Gulf/W Car are from the wave still inside W Africa:

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

Maybe NHC needs to put the circle back on the area below Cuba....its putting on a show.....

 

[Brick Tamland]

Ohh definitely watch out for Vicky. That name alone screams trouble.

Vicky is sure enough tricky.

 

[Brick Tamland]

View attachment 48152

Seems like we have been watching out for the one near Bermuds to form for days.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Webberweather53]

Huh, it's almost like we actually don't legitimately know where any of these storms are going and if the SE US will get off scott-free the rest of the month. Weird how uncertainty works.

 

[Brent]

Huh, it's almost like we actually don't legitimately know where any of these storms are going and if the SE US will get off scott-free the rest of the month. Weird how uncertainty works.

I mean they had Laura an open wave but people are shocked the models are changing

or how it shifted from Florida to almost Texas(and the EPS was deep into Texas) but nevermind

 

[GaWx]

For the wave still in Africa, the 0Z UKMET is bullish a bit further south than the 12Z run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.0N 16.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2020 60 12.0N 16.7W 1003 33
0000UTC 11.09.2020 72 12.2N 19.7W 993 40
1200UTC 11.09.2020 84 12.4N 22.7W 983 52
0000UTC 12.09.2020 96 13.1N 25.5W 981 50
1200UTC 12.09.2020 108 13.8N 28.8W 979 50
0000UTC 13.09.2020 120 14.7N 31.8W 976 54
1200UTC 13.09.2020 132 15.7N 34.7W 972 63
0000UTC 14.09.2020 144 17.0N 37.3W 969 67

 

[GaWx]

0Z King for the wave still inside W Africa looks like that aggressive run from the other day that was moving steadily westward: ??

 

[accu35]

12Z King for the wave still inside W Africa looks like that aggressive run from the other day that was moving steadily westward: ??

View attachment 48173

0z the same also

 

[GaWx]

0z the same also

Oops, typo. I meant 0Z and am correcting it.

 

[Webberweather53]

I mean they had Laura an open wave but people are shocked the models are changing

or how it shifted from Florida to almost Texas(and the EPS was deep into Texas) but nevermind

I mean you have to inherently know that our models are almost always poorly dispersed and will rarely if ever see the true range of solutions.

 

[Webberweather53]

Every wave that leaves the coast of Africa behind Rene develops on the 0z Euro ensemble. We'll be in the greek alphabet in about 2 weeks at this rate.

 

[Henry2326]

00z Euro....not a good look....and aligns with 06z GFS for the island path......00z. CMC riding low for this one too....

 

[Henry2326]

Beast over Africa....