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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Henry2326 said:
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Potential ridge over troubled waters home brew type of system that JB talks about and even mentioned today in his Saturday Summary. Whatever this ends up being, which op models and most ensemble members insist will remain very weak, appears headed for the SE coast around Thursday due to mainly westerly low level steering. Conditions aren’t very favorable but they’re not really all that unfavorable with very warm water that will be traversed, mainly low to moderate shear, not much dry air nearby, and an upper high as well as sfc high that will be just N and NE of it. The ICON and Euro have been onto this as a very weak sfc low for many runs. One Euro run had a TD or TS. As Papin mentioned, there already was a tiny LLC near 30N, 61W per the last vis pics. Just something to watch.
 
This recent ascat does suggest a closed circulation continues near 30N, 62W with persistent convection and what look like 30 knot highest winds. Hmmm.

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Here’s what end of 0Z ICON has, the most active run yet as it has it first go to near ILM before stalling just offshore and then looping back offshore due to a new big NE high blocking it:



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This ICON run has “ridge over troubled water” written all over it.
 
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0Z EPS: most active EPS yet with quite a few that may be a TD and several that look like a TS with the coast of all of the SE states FL-NC directly affected depending on the member.

Also, keep in mind that if this ever becomes a significant system, it could drastically change the path of 92L and the other systems as appeared to have happened on this EPS run.

This map is way out at hour 144...we may be watching this feature all week due to very slow movement:


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06z Icon.....00z CMC and 06z GFS have waves that are south of the ICON position....

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GaWx said:
This recent ascat does suggest a closed circulation continues near 30N, 62W with persistent convection and what look like 30 knot highest winds. Hmmm.

View attachment 48078

Here’s what end of 0Z ICON has, the most active run yet as it has it first go to near ILM before stalling just offshore and then looping back offshore due to a new big NE high blocking it:



View attachment 48077

This ICON run has “ridge over troubled water” written all over it.
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Although I see this loop going south in the model, it's hard to believe that it could fight the gulf stream.......Euro bet and lost that Florence was going to go south from Wilmington to Charleston......
 
That area near Bermuda has some sneaky potential the conditions get a little better late in the week as it approaches the US. You can see the 850/700mb identity of it making LF near ILM on the gfs Wednesday and the Euro Friday.
 
ryan1234 said:
Yes, modeling has been absolutely stellar thus far...

And he basically declared the season over. We haven’t even peaked yet.

Where are the mods for post like this? It clutters up this board.


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And your complaining about it cluttered up the board more than that one post. Relax, don't like a members comments, ignore them and move on.
 
metwannabe said:
And your complaining about it cluttered up the board more than that one post. Relax, don't like a members comments, ignore them and move on.
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Fair enough. But in my defense I do ignore those people. However, it doesn’t mean I won’t see said post, especially when it’s quoted.


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