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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Looks like we may have Paulette and Rene by tomorrow


1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure
system located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
northern Leeward Islands continues to get better organized. A
tropical depression is expected to form later tonight or on Monday
while the low moves westward or west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms continue to steadily increase and are
showing signs of organization in association with a low pressure
system located just west of Senegal. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form within the next day or so while the system moves
generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests
in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system
as gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely there Monday
night and Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch or Warning could be
required for the islands by early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
In addition to the invest south of Bermuda, the tropical wave over Burkina-Faso is the one we really need to pay attention to over the next few weeks imo, odds are this is probably gonna become a strong hurricane next week as TD 17 & 18 completely obliterate the TUTT in front of it.

EhT4imWXcAY4t6t.jpeg

Now
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Day 7 GEFS bulk shear (200-850 hPa) anomaly forecast


1599481396957.png


0z UKMET

1599481471943.png


0z CMC

1599481535645.png



0z GFS

1599481561557.png


0z ECMWF

1599481583613.png
 
Here is hour 228 of the 12Z Euro:

Yes, that is Rene moving SOUTHWARD near 23N, 49W back toward the MDR at hour 228 on this 12Z Euro map WSW of potential TD 20! Meanwhile, the wave inside Africa is near the NE Caribbean. Potential TD 21 is just off Africa! Paulette is moving NE over the N Atl. So, there are a whopping 5 TCs at 0Z on 9/17 on this Euro run. If we added the low SW of Bermuda, which is already dissipated by then, that would mean SIX systems to follow just over the next 10 days!!

By the way, if the low now SW of Bermuda were to become a TD, potential TD 20 could be TD 21, and potential TD 21 could be TD 22. And this is assuming that the current Caribbean system doesn't become a TD. Unreal!!

czhcKWm.png
 
Here on this 216 hour map of the 12Z EPS, those just offshore the SE US, the TD over FL, and the H in the E GOM are from Paulette. The one SW of PR and the 2 NE of PR (yes, there are 2) are from Rene. The two in the E Caribbean are from the wave currently inside Africa. The one on the NC coast is from the low now SW of Bermuda:

BrRiLEv.png
 
GaWx said:
Here on this 216 hour map of the 12Z EPS, those just offshore the SE US, the TD over FL, and the H in the E GOM are from Paulette. The one SW of PR and the 2 NE of PR (yes, there are 2) are from Rene. The two in the E Caribbean are from the wave currently inside Africa. The one on the NC coast is from the low now SW of Bermuda:

BrRiLEv.png
Click to expand...

So we can’t write off Paulette and Rene?


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Here is the hour 360 of that same 12Z EPS: all or most of these 13 appear to be from a combo of Rene and the wave currently inside Africa with most from the wave inside Africa but at least two and probably at least 3 from Rene. I know that the one just offshore NW FL and the one just offshore NE MX are from Rene:

0xSIveC.png
 
Last edited:
Henry2326 said:
This far out, we can't write off anything.....the models are telling us that we have 4 times the risk that we typically have when we are looking for 1 hurricane.....
Click to expand...

Not to mention there's been quite a few hurricanes the last few years that should have recurved and hit the US

Not that I'm at all saying these will but we definitely can't make certain declarations this far out
 
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