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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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BufordWX said:
My goodness the Euro is trying to challenge the all time record low for OKC. It has -15 on Tuesday morning. The All time record low for OKC is -17.View attachment 73782
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Crazy to think this happened in 2017 around this time of year, subzero temperatures and temperatures near 100° only five calendar days apart
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If we can just get through next 10 days, maybe this nightmare can end.

We can’t get any snow or ice because of a stout Atlantic ridge but we have no problem with rain. ?‍♂️

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Webberweather53 said:
That’s also because the high isn’t there anymore so your first statement is still wrong
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And thats what I was referring to the whole time Eric. People were commenting that lows can't run into highs, but others were replying the high was retreating and receiving dislikes. It was then argued the high wasn't going to retreat like that.

Thus the crux of my original whammy post.
 
smast16 said:
And thats what I was referring to the whole time Eric. People were commenting that lows can't run into highs, but others were replying the high was retreating and receiving dislikes. It was then argued the high wasn't going to retreat like that.

Thus the crux of my original whammy post.
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I've always found this to be sort of a weird argument. Every winter, you see models track lows near the Gulf northeastward into seemingly stout high pressure zones. Then, you have the inevitable posts stating that lows can't run into highs.

I think we can pretty much all agree that a low isn't going to drive into a stationary strong or strengthening area of high pressure. It's sort of like saying, a person can't walk through a wall. But open up the door, and there you go.

In winters of late, we don't see static high pressure zones setting up where we want them. Instead, they retreat north and east, allowing a gateway for the low to migrate northeast.

If you have CAD in place, you will see the model correct from running a low into the Lakes to killing the parent and reforming the secondary to the east as the model "sees" the CAD better.

Lows will not run into highs, but highs will usually retreat, providing an opportunity for the low to move into its previous spot.
 
smast16 said:
And thats what I was referring to the whole time Eric. People were commenting that lows can't run into highs, but others were replying the high was retreating and receiving dislikes. It was then argued the high wasn't going to retreat like that.

Thus the crux of my original whammy post.
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Lows can’t run into highs if the high isn’t even there to begin with lol
 
Gonna see a lot of this over the coming days . Wintry so close while I have thunderstorms . And LOUD ones
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Rain Cold said:
I've always found this to be sort of a weird argument. Every winter, you see models track lows near the Gulf northeastward into seemingly stout high pressure zones. Then, you have the inevitable posts stating that lows can't run into highs.

I think we can pretty much all agree that a low isn't going to drive into a stationary strong or strengthening area of high pressure. It's sort of like saying, a person can't walk through a wall. But open up the door, and there you go.

In winters of late, we don't see static high pressure zones setting up where we want them. Instead, they retreat north and east, allowing a gateway for the low to migrate northeast.

If you have CAD in place, you will see the model correct from running a low into the Lakes to killing the parent and reforming the secondary to the east as the model "sees" the CAD better.

Lows will not run into highs, but highs will usually retreat, providing an opportunity for the low to move into its previous spot.
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What I don’t understand to begin with is why LPs seem to want to cut or run inland a majority of the time. It’s like they are on rails when the get to the Eastern third of the nation and turn North. Why does there have to be something to “block” them from cutting or going North? Why do they just inherently want to cut all the time?
 
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mrdaddyman said:
What is don’t understand to begin with is why LPs seem to want to cut or run inland a majority of the time. It’s like they are on rails when the get to the Eastern third of the nation and turn North. Why does there have to be something to “block” them from cutting or going North? Why do they just inherently want to cut all the time?
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Low pressure systems want to move poleward. And unfortunately, the longwave pattern supports that being over or west of our area. And we don't get overrunning events anymore. Everybody gets all excited about them, but they only exist in model fantasy land for the SE US.
 
Rain Cold said:
Low pressure systems want to move poleward. And unfortunately, the longwave pattern supports that being over or west of our area. And we don't get overrunning events anymore. Everybody gets all excited about them, but they only exist in model fantasy land for the SE US.
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So why do they move West to East so easily accross the country until they get to the East? Is this what you mean by the longwave pattern being West of our area that causes them to turn North? Can you explain what that is?
 
mrdaddyman said:
So why do they move West to East so easily accross the country until they get to the East? Is this what you mean by the longwave pattern being West of our area that causes them to turn North? Can you explain what that is?
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Yeah...if you look at a map of the jet stream, it runs generally west to east and features troughing and ridging. Storm systems follow along it and influence it also. Big blocking ridged influence it too. Much of our winters of late seem dominated by the jet stream flowing north and/or west of our area. Sometimes you get a split in the jet out west, where you get a southern and northern stream. This is common in El Nino winters. This is a simplified description, but it essentially captures what's going on.

When you have a big 50/50 low in place, it will act as a suppressing agent to allow storm systems to track south of us. Also, when you have a big PNA out west, it allows the trough to set up over the eastern portion of the country and out us in play for colder weather, with a storm track to our south, depending on where the PNA ridge sets up and how tall it is, etc.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
I wonder if Brad P will ever admit that he was totally wrong about this Arctic Air
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It’s the difference in this PV lobe being on one side of Michigan or the other that takes this from pants blown apart Deep South snow and ice storm to borderline severe lol. Normally changes like this don’t have those kind of consequences and are just cold rain vs warmer rain, but there’s so much cold air to our NW that even little tweaks lead to gigantic sensible wx changes
 
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