Avalanche
Member
Still looks big time just to your west. Drive a little if you have to, enjoy it. We never know anymore when we might see it again.The 0z models are dropping my snow totals
Still looks big time just to your west. Drive a little if you have to, enjoy it. We never know anymore when we might see it again.The 0z models are dropping my snow totals
Raleigh posters heading to the cliff as we speak.Final call map for this event. No major changes overall except to mention areas along the US 74 corridor between Charlotte & Fayetteville have the greatest potential for snow later this evening given the more favorable differential CVA aloft that'll be down there.
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Still looks big time just to your west. Drive a little if you have to, enjoy it. We never know anymore when we might see it again.
It doesn’t look awful but not greatSo no posts in the January thread since 12 last night. Must be going to poop.
Thank you for your serviceStarting to think this is all a waste of time. All the pattern talk, all the model watching. Folks saying we're headed towards a great pattern for snow and it never materializes. You can't trust the models and it just isn't how it used to be when it comes to winter here. The climate has changed for whatever reason and it is just getting harder and harder to get a good winter storm outside the mountains no matter how good the pattern supposedly looks. If the great pattern that we are supposedly getting the second half of the month doesn't materialize or doesn't produce a good winter storm here then I seriously think I'm done following things here and just letting whatever happens happen.
Raleigh posters heading to the cliff as we speak.
At least I’m barely I’m the pink here in western Durham County. I hope I at least see some sticking snow!!!
Don't fret...looks like this strat warm stuff keeps the pv weak for some time. We will have plenty of more rain storms to track.
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Let's keep talking about the D10 model solutions and looking at the 300+ hr ensemble means. The problem is not the models, it's how they're being used.Great! An incoming failed great pattern for the 15th-25th. Guess not if you cold rain.
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Not the worst idea actuallyStarting to think this is all a waste of time. All the pattern talk, all the model watching. Folks saying we're headed towards a great pattern for snow and it never materializes. You can't trust the models and it just isn't how it used to be when it comes to winter here. The climate has changed for whatever reason and it is just getting harder and harder to get a good winter storm outside the mountains no matter how good the pattern supposedly looks. If the great pattern that we are supposedly getting the second half of the month doesn't materialize or doesn't produce a good winter storm here then I seriously think I'm done following things here and just letting whatever happens happen.
Yeah you got that right. If afraid if we didn't live at D+10, we'd never have a winter. Oh wait. LolWhat would be good is if one of these D10 (nonsense no one should ever look at time frames - I'm guilty as any) patterns would actually make it into D5 (model verification is actually above 50%, or a coin flip) range. I think there is something about the current setup with the persistent Greenland blocking and models beyond truncation that is causing this to reoccur, but it's just a mirage. Hopefully the SSWE will trigger a tropospheric response that will eventually match whatever is fooling the lower-resolution part of these runs. If anyone hasn't noticed, the blocking always becomes much more extreme just beyond 192 hours, but rarely is it making it into the higher resolution part of the run without a dramatic alteration.
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Case in point, the last (18z) GFS run. And there's plenty more (examples) where that came from.
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We're not in a great pattern yet. Will we get there? Who knows.Starting to think this is all a waste of time. All the pattern talk, all the model watching. Folks saying we're headed towards a great pattern for snow and it never materializes. You can't trust the models and it just isn't how it used to be when it comes to winter here. The climate has changed for whatever reason and it is just getting harder and harder to get a good winter storm outside the mountains no matter how good the pattern supposedly looks. If the great pattern that we are supposedly getting the second half of the month doesn't materialize or doesn't produce a good winter storm here then I seriously think I'm done following things here and just letting whatever happens happen.