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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Lickwx said:
It certainly feels like it, watch us get a freak March cold snap that drops us below 20, or November lol. I know we will eventually drop below 20, 15, and even 10. Climo says so!
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At some point we'll get below 20° again and even below 10°. Just like at some point RDU will have a winter with at least 10" of snowfall, and at some point Dallas and Columbian will have snow accumulation. Every year from 2014-2018 RDU had a single digit low at least once except 2016. This must be a "regression to the mean" for that, since that is not something that happens very often.
 
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CyclonicFury said:
At some point we'll get below 20° again and even below 10°. Just like at some point RDU will have a winter with at least 10" of snowfall, and at some point Dallas and Columbian will have snow accumulation. Every year from 2014-2018 RDU had a single digit low at least once. This must be a "regression to the mean" for that, since that is not something that happens very often.
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Almost, I think 2016 didn't have any single digits but your point still stands, mean minimum 81-10 was 10 for RDU, running 130+ year mean minimum is 11, and 91-20 mean minimum is 12 so after 4 years of single digits it was bound to balance out with some warmer years.
 
Lickwx said:
Almost, I think 2016 didn't have any single digits but your point still stands, mean minimum 81-10 was 10 for RDU, running 130+ year mean minimum is 11, and 91-20 mean minimum is 12 so after 4 years of single digits it was bound to balance out with some warmer years.
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Oops you're right, we bottomed out at 15° that winter. A sub-10°F low 4/5 years is still impressive.
 
Furiously comparing recent model runs for each new frame of the GFS as it comes out...
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(but still having no idea what I'm reading after all these years)
 
SD said:
Quick glance the gfs didn't go below freezing here through 192 hrs. Lol
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At this point i feel like the guys inputting the data into these models are just toying with us for fun. They're just messing with our heads or something. Have we ever seen so much disagreement run to run?
 
Can only see HRRR model output in weatherbell up to 18 hours. Isn’t there a longer timescale available?
 
Shaggy said:
At this point i feel like the guys inputting the data into these models are just toying with us for fun. They're just messing with our heads or something. Have we ever seen so much disagreement run to run?
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I feel like we do this once a winter particularly when we get these big arctic drops.
 
Brent said:
Don't forget a million wrecks lmao
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Honestly, decades from now, folks in Texas might be calling this The Great Snow and Cold of 2021. This is some legendary sh*t that the models are showing there. GFS is really trying to show -6 in DFW. Probably not going to be that cold, but even if it gets down to 2 degrees or something like that, we're still talking historic stuff. I hope the models aren't pulling a fast one on you...history could be in the making.
 
SD said:
I could be wrong but i think only certain hours to out 48
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Memphisweathernet put out a video about an hour or so ago on their Facebook showing a longer hrrr timescale. They are concerned now that the HRRR is showing heavier precip in northwest MS through Thursday. Starting to think the Canadian was onto something.
 
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NWMSGuy said:
Memphisweathernet put out a video about an hour or so ago on their Facebook showing a longer hrrr timescale. They are concerned now that the HRRR is showing heavier precip in northwest MS through Thursday. Starting to think the Canadian was onto something.
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Yeah the LL cold generally out performs the models in these super cold/dry slow/stalled arctic front patterns by a couple degrees
 
SD said:
Yeah the LL cold generally out performs the models in these super cold/dry slow/stalled arctic front patterns by a couple degrees
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Thanks man! It looks like the 0Z output has the extended. Looks interesting too. I’ve got a feeling the current Ice Storm warning is going to be extended into NW MS at some point.
 
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