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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Rain Cold said:
You won't. Go ahead and accept it and embrace the next mirage! You'll feel much better.
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I do believe you might correct. I’m sure in a better position here in W Durham than you folks in Wake County, but it’s looking bleak nevertheless. I hope I’m eating crow tomorrow evening while it’s hammering snow outside.
 
There will be one day sometime in the future...maybe even in the coming months, where a snowstorm that begins in Texas and blankets LA...will translate to the east of them too again instead of it trending northeast.

It wasn't too long ago that this happened...

ETA: If that southern slider does well, that is.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
There will be one day sometime in the future...maybe even in the coming months, where a snowstorm that begins in Texas and blankets LA...will translate to the east of them too again instead of it trending northeast.

It wasn't too long ago that this happened...

ETA: If that southern slider does well, that is.
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Would be good to have a northern wave out ahead or a big west -NAO or both. We've had entirely too much ridging near/through the SE in recent years...that and just general bad timing with shortwaves.
 
Just saw a Lynchburg hasn’t had a measurable snowfall in 669 days - since March 2019! That’s really bad considering I believe they average double digits for snowfall. I guess they got skunked last February, too?
 
Rain Cold said:
Would be good to have a northern wave out ahead or a big west -NAO or both. We've had entirely too much ridging near/through the SE in recent years...that and just general bad timing with shortwaves.
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What would be good is if one of these D10 (nonsense no one should ever look at time frames - I'm guilty as any) patterns would actually make it into D5 (model verification is actually above 50%, or a coin flip) range. I think there is something about the current setup with the persistent Greenland blocking and models beyond truncation that is causing this to reoccur, but it's just a mirage. Hopefully the SSWE will trigger a tropospheric response that will eventually match whatever is fooling the lower-resolution part of these runs. If anyone hasn't noticed, the blocking always becomes much more extreme just beyond 192 hours, but rarely is it making it into the higher resolution part of the run without a dramatic alteration.

gfs_z500a_namer_47.png

Case in point, the last (18z) GFS run. And there's plenty more (examples) where that came from.

gfs_z500a_namer_fh186-240.gif
 
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Well I punted til the 21st a couple weeks ago. Looking like a pretty good call tbh. Anybody got them 1,000 hour CFS snow maps? How we looking? ?
 
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